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Match board · Bundesliga · 2026-10-24

FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen

FSV Mainz 05
55.6%
Draw
19.8%
Werder Bremen
24.6%
Headline value
—
xG 2.3 – 1.5FSV Mainz 05 form WLWLWWerder Bremen form DDWDW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Niclas Fullkrugover 0.51.131.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
+19.2%
Phillip Tietzover 0.51.341.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-2.1%
Sheraldo Beckerover 0.51.311.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-3.7%
Marco Grullover 0.52.361.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-12.2%
Benedict Hollerbachover 0.51.691.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-15.7%
Eric Martelover 0.52.972.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-16.4%
Ransford-Yeboah Konigsdorfferover 0.51.851.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-19.2%
Nadiem Amiriover 0.52.091.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-25.5%
Paul Nebelover 0.52.971.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-30.0%
Otto Ruoppiover 0.53.651.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-36.3%
Jae-Sung Leeover 0.53.971.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-44.1%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultFSV Mainz 05 win1.80—no price—
ResultDraw5.054.20 Betway · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-4.0%
ResultWerder Bremen win4.064.55 10bet · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
+2.6%
GoalsOver 4.53.014.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
+10.1%
GoalsOver 3.51.902.3077 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
+9.3%
GoalsOver 2.51.371.5455 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
+8.4%
GoalsOver 5.55.429.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
+7.3%
GoalsOver 1.51.121.1818 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
+4.7%
GoalsOver 6.511.0015.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
+2.4%
GoalsOver 7.524.9329.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
+0.6%
GoalsOver 0.51.021.025 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
+0.2%
GoalsOver 8.562.5651.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-0.4%
GoalsUnder 8.51.021.002 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-1.4%
GoalsUnder 0.544.7019.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-3.0%
GoalsUnder 7.51.041.0067 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-3.4%
GoalsUnder 6.51.101.0303 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-6.2%
GoalsUnder 1.59.315.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-8.3%
GoalsUnder 5.51.231.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-9.3%
GoalsUnder 2.53.722.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-13.1%
GoalsUnder 4.51.501.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-13.2%
GoalsUnder 3.52.111.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
-14.6%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (63)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Phillip TietzAnytime scorer2.40 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Sheraldo BeckerAnytime scorer2.40 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Benedict HollerbachAnytime scorer2.60 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Ransford KonigsdorfferAnytime scorer2.60 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Jae-Sung LeeAnytime scorer3.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Niclas FullkrugAnytime scorer3.20 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Cedric IttenAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Kenny QuetantAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Nadiem AmiriAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Otto RuoppiAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Paul NebelAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Salim MusahAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Marco GrullAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Ivan ChukiAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Justin NjinmahAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Darwin SoyluAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Eren DinkciAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Eric MartelAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Kaishu SanoAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Mitchell WeiserAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Paul ErevbenagieAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Jens StageAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Dariusz StalmachAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Lennard MaloneyAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Rael NakuzolaAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Anthony CaciAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Danny Da CostaAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Dominik KohrAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Fabio GruberAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Ludovit ReisAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Phillipp MweneAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Silvan WidmerAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Sota KawasakiAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Stefan BellAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Stefan PoschAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Kacper PotulskiAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Senne LynenAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Arthur AugustoAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Felix AguAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Mick SchmetgensAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Moussa NDiayeAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Olivier DemanAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Oskar WojcikAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Youri RegeerAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Amos PieperAnytime scorer17.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Marco FriedlAnytime scorer17.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Mats HeitmannAnytime scorer17.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Niklas StarkAnytime scorer17.00 bet365 · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Sheraldo BeckerAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Jae-Sung LeeAssistsover 0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Kaishu SanoAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Nadiem AmiriAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Benedict HollerbachAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Silvan WidmerAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Otto RuoppiAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Paul NebelAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Phillip TietzAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Rael NakuzolaAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Mitchell WeiserAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Paul ErevbenagieAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Stefan PoschAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Ivan ChukiAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC
Phillipp MweneAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-18 05:43 UTC