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Match board · Bundesliga · 2026-10-17

FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05

FC Schalke 04
15.6%
Draw
17%
FSV Mainz 05
67.4%
Headline value
—
xG 1.2 – 2.6FC Schalke 04 form LDWDLFSV Mainz 05 form LWLWD

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 14 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Adil Aouchicheover 0.51.511.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+4.5%
Phillip Tietzover 0.51.341.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+3.4%
Sheraldo Beckerover 0.51.391.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+0.8%
Nadiem Amiriover 0.51.861.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-9.9%
Eric Ebimbeover 0.52.812.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-12.0%
Ransford-Yeboah Konigsdorfferover 0.51.911.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-14.4%
Benedict Hollerbachover 0.51.791.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-15.5%
Paul Nebelover 0.53.031.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-21.6%
Chukwubuike Adamuover 0.52.331.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-26.4%
Otto Ruoppiover 0.53.651.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-27.2%
Kenan Karamanover 0.52.921.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-27.6%
Edin Dzekoover 0.52.861.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-42.8%
Jae-Sung Leeover 0.55.521.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-43.8%
Hee-Chan Hwangover 0.57.181.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-51.3%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultFC Schalke 04 win6.42—no price—
ResultDraw5.893.75 Betfred · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-9.7%
ResultFSV Mainz 05 win1.48—no price—
GoalsOver 3.51.902.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+12.7%
GoalsOver 4.53.014.60 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+11.5%
GoalsOver 2.51.371.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+11.2%
GoalsOver 5.55.429.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+7.3%
GoalsOver 1.51.121.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+5.9%
GoalsOver 6.511.0017.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+3.2%
GoalsOver 7.524.9341.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+1.6%
GoalsOver 8.562.5667.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+0.1%
GoalsUnder 0.544.7017.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-3.6%
GoalsUnder 1.59.315.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-9.3%
GoalsUnder 5.51.231.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-10.8%
GoalsUnder 4.51.501.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-13.2%
GoalsUnder 2.53.722.375 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-15.2%
GoalsUnder 3.52.111.5833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-15.8%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (59)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Edin DzekoAnytime scorer2.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Phillip TietzAnytime scorer2.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Moussa SyllaAnytime scorer3.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Benedict HollerbachAnytime scorer3.10 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ransford KonigsdorfferAnytime scorer3.10 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Sheraldo BeckerAnytime scorer3.10 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Chukwubuike AdamuAnytime scorer3.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Hee-Chan HwangAnytime scorer3.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Kenan KaramanAnytime scorer3.60 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Adil AouchicheAnytime scorer4.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jae-Sung LeeAnytime scorer4.00 Unibet · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nadiem AmiriAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Otto RuoppiAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Paul NebelAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Eric EbimbeAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Luca VozarAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Robin GosensAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Eric MartelAnytime scorer7.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Janik BachmannAnytime scorer7.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Max GrugerAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Rael NakuzolaAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Vitalie BeckerAnytime scorer8.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Adrian GantenbeinAnytime scorer9.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Anthony CaciAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Dominik KohrAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Satoshi TanakaAnytime scorer9.50 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Silvan WidmerAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Sota KawasakiAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Soufiane El-FaouziAnytime scorer9.50 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Stefan PoschAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Anton DonkorAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Danny Da CostaAnytime scorer11.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Hasan KurucayAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Kacper PotulskiAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Kaishu SanoAnytime scorer11.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Lennard MaloneyAnytime scorer11.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Phillipp MweneAnytime scorer11.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ron SchallenbergAnytime scorer11.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Stefan BellAnytime scorer11.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Timo BeckerAnytime scorer12.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Fabio GruberAnytime scorer13.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Maximilian WoberAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Mertcan AyhanAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nikola KaticAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Sheraldo BeckerAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jae-Sung LeeAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Edin DzekoAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Kaishu SanoAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nadiem AmiriAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Benedict HollerbachAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Robin GosensAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Silvan WidmerAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Hee-Chan HwangAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Otto RuoppiAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Paul NebelAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Phillip TietzAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Rael NakuzolaAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Adil AouchicheAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Chukwubuike AdamuAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC