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Match board · Bundesliga · 2026-10-17

Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07

Werder Bremen
48.8%
Draw
26%
SC Paderborn 07
25.2%
Headline value
—
xG 1.5 – 1Werder Bremen form DWDWLSC Paderborn 07 form LWLLD

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 10 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Jens Stageover 0.51.701.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-3.0%
Niclas Fullkrugover 0.51.271.1818 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-6.0%
Rayan Philippeover 0.51.721.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-8.6%
Justin Njinmahover 0.52.031.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-17.3%
Stefano Marinoover 0.52.331.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-20.8%
Steffen Tiggesover 0.52.581.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-21.3%
Mitchell Weiserover 0.52.811.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-28.0%
Marco Grullover 0.52.621.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-31.1%
Marvin Pieringerover 0.54.691.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-42.3%
Cedric Ittenover 0.56.761.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-62.1%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultWerder Bremen win2.051.83 Ladbrokes · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-5.9%
ResultDraw3.854.14 Betfair · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+1.8%
ResultSC Paderborn 07 win3.96—no price—
GoalsUnder 2.51.842.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+14.4%
GoalsUnder 3.51.321.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+13.9%
GoalsUnder 1.53.485.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+10.5%
GoalsUnder 4.51.121.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+9.1%
GoalsUnder 5.51.041.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+4.9%
GoalsUnder 0.512.1817.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+2.3%
GoalsUnder 6.51.011.0303 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+1.5%
GoalsOver 8.5877.0067.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-1.4%
GoalsOver 7.5235.4834.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-2.5%
GoalsOver 6.570.4917.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-4.5%
GoalsOver 5.523.808.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-7.6%
GoalsOver 1.51.401.1875 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-12.9%
GoalsOver 4.59.194.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-13.5%
GoalsOver 3.54.132.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-17.4%
GoalsOver 2.52.191.55 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-18.9%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (66)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Niclas FullkrugAnytime scorer2.38 Unibet · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Cedric IttenAnytime scorer2.40 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Salim MusahAnytime scorer2.40 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Kenny QuetantAnytime scorer2.62 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Marco GrullAnytime scorer3.25 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Justin NjinmahAnytime scorer3.30 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ivan ChukiAnytime scorer3.40 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Stefano MarinoAnytime scorer3.40 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Gabriel VidovicAnytime scorer3.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Marvin PieringerAnytime scorer3.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Rayan PhilippeAnytime scorer3.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Darwin SoyluAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Eren DinkciAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Steffen TiggesAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Paul ErevbenagieAnytime scorer3.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jens StageAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Sven MichelAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Deniz ZeitlerAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Mitchell WeiserAnytime scorer4.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Sebastian KlaasAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Dariusz StalmachAnytime scorer4.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Laurin UlrichAnytime scorer5.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ludovit ReisAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Oliver Batista MeierAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Laurin CurdaAnytime scorer5.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Luka DjuricAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ruben MullerAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Senne LynenAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Raphael ObermairAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Clemens LippmannAnytime scorer8.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Niklas MohrAnytime scorer8.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Arthur AugustoAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Felix AguAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Olivier DemanAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Mick SchmetgensAnytime scorer9.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Moussa NDiayeAnytime scorer9.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Oskar WojcikAnytime scorer9.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Youri RegeerAnytime scorer9.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Amos PieperAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jonah StickerAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Mats HeitmannAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Niklas StarkAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Tom BaackAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jano Ter HorstAnytime scorer10.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Felix GotzeAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Mattes HansenAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Santiago CastanedaAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Tjark SchellerAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Marcel HoffmeierAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Marco FriedlAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nyamekye Awortwie GrantAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Mitchell WeiserAssistsover 0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Paul ErevbenagieAssistsover 0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Darwin SoyluAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ivan ChukiAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Niclas FullkrugAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Cedric IttenAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Marco GrullAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jens StageAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Kenny QuetantAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Arthur AugustoAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Eren DinkciAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Moussa NDiayeAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Youri RegeerAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Dariusz StalmachAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Justin NjinmahAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC