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Match board · Bundesliga · 2026-10-17

Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart

Hamburger SV
19.1%
Draw
20.5%
VfB Stuttgart
60.3%
Headline value
—
xG 1.1 – 2.1Hamburger SV form WWLLLVfB Stuttgart form WLLWL

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Ermedin Demirovicover 0.51.231.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+1.4%
Yussuf Poulsenover 0.51.551.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+1.0%
Chris Fuhrichover 0.51.641.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-2.7%
Nikolas Narteyover 0.51.831.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-5.4%
Deniz Undavover 0.51.291.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-5.7%
Dzenan Pejcinovicover 0.51.411.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-8.9%
Jamie Lewelingover 0.52.121.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-22.0%
Tiago Tomasover 0.51.931.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-26.0%
Terem Moffiover 0.51.991.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-27.4%
Leo Sauerover 0.52.401.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-33.3%
Patson Dakaover 0.59.601.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-61.0%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultHamburger SV win5.22—no price—
ResultDraw4.874.20 Skybet · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-3.3%
ResultVfB Stuttgart win1.66—no price—
GoalsUnder 3.51.661.85 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+6.2%
GoalsUnder 4.51.281.3684 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+5.0%
GoalsUnder 2.52.633.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+4.7%
GoalsUnder 5.51.121.1579 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+3.1%
GoalsUnder 1.55.847.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+2.8%
GoalsUnder 6.51.051.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+0.3%
GoalsUnder 0.524.5326.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+0.2%
GoalsOver 8.5175.0041.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-1.9%
GoalsOver 7.559.4221.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-3.1%
GoalsOver 6.522.4111.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-4.6%
GoalsOver 1.51.211.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-6.0%
GoalsOver 5.59.496.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-6.1%
GoalsOver 2.51.611.4167 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-8.6%
GoalsOver 4.54.563.2222 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-9.1%
GoalsOver 3.52.522.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-10.3%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (63)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Deniz UndavAnytime scorer2.02 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Dzenan PejcinovicAnytime scorer2.30 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ermedin DemirovicAnytime scorer2.38 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Tiago TomasAnytime scorer2.65 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Terem MoffiAnytime scorer2.70 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Patson DakaAnytime scorer2.95 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Bilal El KhannoussAnytime scorer3.15 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Immanuel PheraiAnytime scorer3.20 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Otto StangeAnytime scorer3.25 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jamie LewelingAnytime scorer3.40 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jarzinho MalangaAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Leo SauerAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Yussuf PoulsenAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Chris FuhrichAnytime scorer3.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Fabio VieiraAnytime scorer4.10 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Albert GronbaekAnytime scorer4.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Alexander Rossing-LelesiitAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Grischa PromelAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nikolas NarteyAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Maximilian MittelstadtAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Bakery JattaAnytime scorer5.25 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Zakaria El OuahdiAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Albert-Mboyo Sambi LokongaAnytime scorer6.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Bilal NadirAnytime scorer7.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Martin AdelineAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Angelo StillerAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Atakan KarazorAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Dan-Axel ZagadouAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Joshua VagnomanAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Leonidas StergiouAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Lorenz AssignonAnytime scorer7.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Luca JaquezAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Julian ChabotAnytime scorer8.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ameen Al DakhilAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Finn JeltschAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Louis LemkeAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nicolai RembergAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nicolas CapaldoAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ramon HendriksAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Yanik SpaltAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Kofi AmoakoAnytime scorer9.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Maximilian HerwerthAnytime scorer9.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Shafiq NandjaAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
David WolfeAnytime scorer10.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Miro MuheimAnytime scorer10.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Sebastiaan BornauwAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jordan TorunarighaAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Warmed OmariAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Angelo StillerAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Bilal El KhannousAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Chris FuhrichAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jamie LewelingAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Yanik SpaltAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Deniz UndavAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Maximilian MittelstadtAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Leo SauerAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Lorenz AssignonAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Dzenan PejcinovicAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ermedin DemirovicAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Fabio VieiraAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Grischa PromelAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jarzinho MalangaAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nikolas NarteyAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC