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Match board · Bundesliga · 2026-10-17

Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund

Union Berlin
22.5%
Draw
21.6%
Borussia Dortmund
55.9%
Headline value
—
xG 1.2 – 2Union Berlin form WLLLDBorussia Dortmund form DWWWW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Konstantinos Karetsasover 0.51.421.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+6.5%
Serhou Guirassyover 0.51.261.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-6.3%
Marin Ljubicicover 0.52.141.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-13.3%
Ethan Nwaneriover 0.51.931.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-17.4%
Felix Nmechaover 0.53.101.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-25.6%
Fabio Silvaover 0.52.221.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-28.2%
Maximilian Beierover 0.51.931.2222 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-30.0%
Joey Veermanover 0.53.751.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-31.2%
Ramy Bensebainiover 0.54.521.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-35.8%
Carney Chukwuemekaover 0.511.621.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-55.0%
Serhou Guirassyover 1.52.131.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-7.7%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultUnion Berlin win4.445.02 Matchbook · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+2.6%
ResultDraw4.644.33 Matchbook · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-1.5%
ResultBorussia Dortmund win1.791.68 Matchbook · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-3.6%
GoalsUnder 1.55.846.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+0.4%
GoalsUnder 3.51.661.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+0.3%
GoalsUnder 2.52.632.625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-0.1%
GoalsUnder 4.51.281.2727 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-0.5%
GoalsUnder 5.51.121.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-0.5%
GoalsUnder 6.51.051.04 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-0.6%
GoalsUnder 0.524.5321.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-0.7%
GoalsOver 8.5175.0067.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-0.9%
GoalsOver 7.559.4234.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-1.3%
GoalsOver 5.59.498.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-2.0%
GoalsOver 6.522.4115.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-2.2%
GoalsOver 4.54.564.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-2.5%
GoalsOver 1.51.211.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-2.8%
GoalsOver 2.51.611.5238 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-3.6%
GoalsOver 3.52.522.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-4.7%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (57)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Serhou GuirassyAnytime scorer1.833 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Mathis AlbertAnytime scorer2.40 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Fabio SilvaAnytime scorer2.62 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Samuele InacioAnytime scorer2.65 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Maximilian BeierAnytime scorer2.70 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ethan NwaneriAnytime scorer3.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Emmanuel Latte LathAnytime scorer3.30 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Konstantinos KaretsasAnytime scorer3.70 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Marin LjubicicAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Felix NmechaAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Carney ChukwuemekaAnytime scorer4.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Justin LermaAnytime scorer4.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Joey VeermanAnytime scorer4.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Livan BurcuAnytime scorer4.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ramy BensebainiAnytime scorer4.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jobe BellinghamAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Linus GutherAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Tim SkarkeAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Woo-yeong JeongAnytime scorer5.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Kastriot ImeriAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Marcel SabitzerAnytime scorer5.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Robert SkovAnytime scorer6.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nico SchlotterbeckAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Julian RyersonAnytime scorer7.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Andras SchaferAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Daniel SvenssonAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Kaua PratesAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Luca ReggianiAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Kouakou GadouAnytime scorer8.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Aljoscha KemleinAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Filippo ManeAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Janik HabererAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Michel AebischerAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Tom RotheAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Waldemar AntonAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Christopher TrimmelAnytime scorer11.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Leopold QuerfeldAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ohis UduokhaiAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Rani KhediraAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Derrick KohnAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Josip JuranovicAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Zeno Van Den BoschAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Joey VeermanAssistsover 0.53.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Julian RyersonAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Mathis AlbertAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Fabio SilvaAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Konstantinos KaretsasAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Samuele InacioAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Maximilian BeierAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Serhou GuirassyAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Christopher TrimmelAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Daniel SvenssonAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Felix NmechaAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Marcel SabitzerAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ethan NwaneriAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Justin LermaAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Kastriot ImeriAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC