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Match board · Bundesliga · 2026-10-18

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg

Bayer Leverkusen
43.7%
Draw
20.1%
SC Freiburg
36.2%
Headline value
—
xG 2.2 – 2Bayer Leverkusen form WWDWLSC Freiburg form WDWWW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 15 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Igor Matanovicover 0.51.341.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+5.6%
Yuito Suzukiover 0.51.691.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-4.3%
Patrik Schickover 0.51.381.1818 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-12.1%
Nathan Tellaover 0.51.831.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-14.6%
Malik Tillmanover 0.52.241.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-19.1%
Jonas Hofmannover 0.52.501.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-23.7%
Afonso Moreiraover 0.52.271.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-25.2%
Christian Kofaneover 0.51.911.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-25.5%
Moussa Diabyover 0.52.121.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-26.1%
Victor Bonifaceover 0.52.011.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-27.9%
Vincenzo Grifoover 0.52.361.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-29.1%
Eliesse Ben Seghirover 0.52.501.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-31.5%
Ibrahim Mazaover 0.52.761.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-35.2%
Martin Terrierover 0.53.311.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-39.0%
Montrell Culbreathover 0.58.841.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-57.9%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultBayer Leverkusen win2.291.74 Betfair · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-13.7%
ResultDraw4.984.3333335 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-3.0%
ResultSC Freiburg win2.764.50 Coral · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+14.0%
GoalsOver 3.51.652.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+16.0%
GoalsOver 4.52.443.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+14.7%
GoalsOver 2.51.271.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+12.3%
GoalsOver 5.54.058.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+12.2%
GoalsOver 6.57.5515.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+6.6%
GoalsOver 1.51.081.1579 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+5.8%
GoalsOver 7.515.6429.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+2.9%
GoalsOver 0.51.021.025 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+0.9%
GoalsOver 8.535.8051.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+0.8%
GoalsUnder 8.51.031.002 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-2.6%
GoalsUnder 0.566.6921.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-3.3%
GoalsUnder 7.51.071.01 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-5.4%
GoalsUnder 1.512.826.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-7.6%
GoalsUnder 6.51.151.04 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-9.4%
GoalsUnder 5.51.331.1176 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-14.2%
GoalsUnder 2.54.762.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-15.3%
GoalsUnder 4.51.701.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-17.9%
GoalsUnder 3.52.531.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-18.4%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (60)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Patrik SchickAnytime scorer1.909 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Victor BonifaceAnytime scorer2.375 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Christian KofaneAnytime scorer2.40 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Moussa DiabyAnytime scorer2.85 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Igor MatanovicAnytime scorer3.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Martin TerrierAnytime scorer3.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Montrell CulbreathAnytime scorer3.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Afonso MoreiraAnytime scorer3.10 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Nathan TellaAnytime scorer3.30 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Eliesse SeghirAnytime scorer3.40 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ibrahim MazaAnytime scorer3.40 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Malik TillmanAnytime scorer3.40 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jonas HofmannAnytime scorer3.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Vincenzo GrifoAnytime scorer3.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Keisuke GotoAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Derry ScherhantAnytime scorer4.10 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Lucas HolerAnytime scorer4.10 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Yuito SuzukiAnytime scorer4.10 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jan-Niklas BesteAnytime scorer4.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Aleix GarciaAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Cyriaque IrieAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Maximilian EggesteinAnytime scorer6.70 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Edmond TapsobaAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Lucas VazquezAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Robert AndrichAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ezequiel FernandezAnytime scorer7.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jarell QuansahAnytime scorer8.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Loic BadeAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Lukas KublerAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Miguel GutierrezAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Patrick OsterhageAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Rihito YamamotoAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Facundo MedinaAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Guela DoueAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Matthias GinterAnytime scorer9.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Tim OermannAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Yannick EngelhardtAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Berkay YilmazAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Bruno OgbusAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Christian GunterAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Max RosenfelderAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Philipp LienhartAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Philipp TreuAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Anthony JungAnytime scorer17.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jordy MakengoAnytime scorer17.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Aleix GarciaAssistsover 0.53.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Moussa DiabyAssistsover 0.53.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Afonso MoreiraAssistsover 0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ibrahim MazaAssistsover 0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Victor BonifaceAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Guela DoueAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jonas HofmannAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Malik TillmanAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Nathan TellaAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Vincenzo GrifoAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Christian KofaneAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Edmond TapsobaAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Martin TerrierAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Miguel GutierrezAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Patrik SchickAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC