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Match board · Bundesliga · 2026-10-17

Bayern München v RB Leipzig

Bayern München
62.7%
Draw
14.7%
RB Leipzig
22.6%
Headline value
—
xG 3.6 – 2.3Bayern München form DWWDWRB Leipzig form WLWLW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 10 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Christopher Nkunkuover 0.51.511.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+1.2%
Michael Oliseover 0.51.221.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-1.4%
Harry Kaneover 0.51.161.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-8.2%
Serge Gnabryover 0.51.491.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-13.0%
Lennart Karlover 0.51.501.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-13.3%
Luis Diazover 0.51.411.1818 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-13.9%
Tom Bischofover 0.52.271.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-19.6%
Nathaniel Brownover 0.53.471.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-40.4%
Johan Bakayokoover 0.54.871.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-43.1%
Harry Kaneover 1.51.721.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-16.7%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultBayern München win1.60—no price—
ResultDraw6.797.86 Matchbook · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+2.0%
ResultRB Leipzig win4.4311.00 PricedUp · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+13.5%
GoalsOver 5.51.862.875 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+19.0%
GoalsOver 6.52.655.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+17.8%
GoalsOver 4.51.431.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+17.8%
GoalsOver 3.51.191.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+12.5%
GoalsOver 7.54.138.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+11.7%
GoalsOver 8.57.0117.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+8.4%
GoalsOver 2.51.071.1538 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+6.7%
GoalsOver 9.512.9526.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+3.9%
GoalsOver 1.51.021.04 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+2.0%
GoalsOver 10.525.8951.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+1.9%
GoalsUnder 0.5365.0456.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-1.5%
GoalsUnder 1.552.9015.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-4.8%
GoalsUnder 2.515.026.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-10.0%
GoalsUnder 8.51.171.0303 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-11.3%
GoalsUnder 3.56.243.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-16.2%
GoalsUnder 7.51.321.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-16.6%
GoalsUnder 6.51.611.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-21.1%
GoalsUnder 4.53.351.95 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-21.4%
GoalsUnder 5.52.171.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-23.1%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (56)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Harry KaneAnytime scorer1.38 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ismael SaibariAnytime scorer2.10 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Luis DiazAnytime scorer2.10 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Michael OliseAnytime scorer2.10 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jamal MusialaAnytime scorer2.15 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Serge GnabryAnytime scorer2.45 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Lennart KarlAnytime scorer2.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nathaniel BrownAnytime scorer3.30 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Samba KonateAnytime scorer3.30 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Christopher NkunkuAnytime scorer3.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Marc GuiuAnytime scorer3.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Romulo da CruzAnytime scorer3.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Bara NdiayeAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Antonio NusaAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Brajan GrudaAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Tidiam GomisAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Johan BakayokoAnytime scorer4.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Tom BischofAnytime scorer4.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Konrad LaimerAnytime scorer5.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Aleksandar PavlovicAnytime scorer5.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Alphonso DaviesAnytime scorer5.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Andrija MaksimovicAnytime scorer5.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Sacha BoeyAnytime scorer5.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Hiroki ItoAnytime scorer5.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jonathan TahAnytime scorer5.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Joshua KimmichAnytime scorer5.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Assan OuedraogoAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ezechiel BanzuziAnytime scorer6.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Neil El AynaouiAnytime scorer6.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Rocco ReitzAnytime scorer7.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Benno KaltefleiterAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Dayot UpamecanoAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Josip StanisicAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ridle BakuAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
David RaumAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Min-Jae KimAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nicolas SeiwaldAnytime scorer10.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Abdoul KoneAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Max FinkgrafeAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Willi OrbanAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Benjamin HenrichsAnytime scorer12.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Maxime EsteveAnytime scorer13.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Castello LukebaAnytime scorer19.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Lukas KlostermannAnytime scorer19.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Michael OliseAssistsover 0.52.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Luis DiazAssistsover 0.52.625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Serge GnabryAssistsover 0.52.625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Joshua KimmichAssistsover 0.52.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Lennart KarlAssistsover 0.52.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nathaniel BrownAssistsover 0.52.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Harry KaneAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Josip StanisicAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Konrad LaimerAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Tom BischofAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Aleksandar PavlovicAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Sacha BoeyAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC