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Match board · Bundesliga · 2026-10-10

FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen

FSV Mainz 05
34.6%
Draw
19.7%
Bayer Leverkusen
45.7%
Headline value
+15.2%
Over 4.5 · Goals
xG 2 – 2.3FSV Mainz 05 form WLWDWBayer Leverkusen form WDWLD

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

VALUEOver 3.5Goals2.1176now 2.20+15.1%
VALUEOver 4.5Goals3.60now 3.80+15.2%
VALUESheraldo Beckershots on target (SOT)Won1.5714+14.5%
VALUEOver 2.5Goals1.50+13.6%
VALUEOver 5.5Goals7.50+13.0%

Player props

SOT · 14 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Sheraldo Beckerover 0.51.281.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+14.5%
Phillip Tietzover 0.51.371.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+9.1%
Patrik Schickover 0.51.221.3448 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+7.4%
Nathan Tellaover 0.51.611.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+4.2%
Nadiem Amiriover 0.51.691.7778 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+3.1%
Benedict Hollerbachover 0.51.851.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-0.4%
Ransford-Yeboah Konigsdorfferover 0.51.901.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-1.8%
Afonso Moreiraover 0.51.801.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-2.4%
Jonas Hofmannover 0.52.091.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-10.1%
Eliesse Ben Seghirover 0.52.141.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-11.2%
Moussa Diabyover 0.52.331.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-11.7%
Ibrahim Mazaover 0.52.361.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-13.3%
Victor Bonifaceover 0.51.801.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-13.7%
Martin Terrierover 0.52.761.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-23.8%
Tackles · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Fabio Gruberover 0.51.071.1538 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+6.5%
Ezequiel Fernandezover 0.51.101.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-1.3%
Loic Badeover 0.51.221.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 03:13 UTC
-4.0%
Stefan Poschover 0.51.151.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-6.6%
Phillipp Mweneover 0.51.251.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-7.3%
Kaishu Sanoover 0.51.301.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-8.7%
Silvan Widmerover 0.51.241.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-9.6%
Malik Tillmanover 0.51.351.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-11.4%
Sota Kawasakiover 0.51.291.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-12.3%
Anthony Caciover 0.51.261.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-13.1%
Lennard Maloneyover 0.51.521.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-21.8%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultFSV Mainz 05 win2.89—no price—
ResultDraw5.074.00 IvyBet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-5.3%
ResultBayer Leverkusen win2.192.25 IvyBet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+1.3%
CornersOver 11.52.083.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+17.7%
CornersOver 9.51.401.8462 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+17.4%
CornersOver 8.51.211.5238 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+17.0%
GoalsOver 3.51.612.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+16.8%
GoalsOver 4.52.333.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+16.6%
CornersOver 10.51.732.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+16.1%
CornersOver 12.52.714.60 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+15.2%
GoalsOver 2.51.251.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+13.6%
GoalsOver 5.53.807.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+13.0%
CornersOver 7.51.111.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+12.8%
CornersOver 6.51.031.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+9.8%
CornersOver 11.02.082.4857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+7.8%
GoalsOver 1.51.081.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+7.1%
GoalsOver 6.56.9313.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+6.7%
CornersOver 9.01.401.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+6.3%
CornersOver 10.01.731.875 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+4.4%
GoalsOver 7.514.0826.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+3.3%
GoalsOver 8.531.5561.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+1.5%
GoalsOver 0.51.011.02 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 03:13 UTC
+0.6%
GoalsUnder 0.573.7026.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-2.5%
GoalsUnder 7.51.081.0152 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 03:13 UTC
-5.6%
GoalsUnder 1.513.916.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-8.2%
GoalsUnder 6.51.171.04 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-10.6%
CornersUnder 6.537.506.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-12.7%
CornersUnder 7.59.784.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-14.8%
GoalsUnder 5.51.361.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-15.2%
GoalsUnder 2.55.072.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-16.0%
CornersUnder 10.52.371.65 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-18.4%
CornersUnder 12.51.581.2222 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-18.7%
CornersUnder 8.55.772.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-19.0%
CornersUnder 11.51.921.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-19.4%
GoalsUnder 4.51.751.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-19.9%
GoalsUnder 3.52.651.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-20.2%
CornersUnder 9.53.522.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-20.3%
CornersUnder 9.05.772.3158 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-25.9%
CornersUnder 11.02.371.4615 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-26.2%
CornersUnder 10.03.521.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-27.1%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (61)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Patrik SchickAnytime scorer2.33 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Christian KofaneAnytime scorer2.50 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Phillip TietzAnytime scorer3.06 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Victor BonifaceAnytime scorer3.11 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Montrell CulbreathAnytime scorer3.50 BetVictor · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Ransford KonigsdorfferAnytime scorer3.60 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Benedict HollerbachAnytime scorer3.65 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Sheraldo BeckerAnytime scorer3.74 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Eliesse SeghirAnytime scorer3.89 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Moussa DiabyAnytime scorer3.89 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Ibrahim MazaAnytime scorer3.94 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Martin TerrierAnytime scorer3.94 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Afonso MoreiraAnytime scorer4.33 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Nadiem AmiriAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Malik TillmanAnytime scorer4.40 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Paul NebelAnytime scorer4.53 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Nathan TellaAnytime scorer4.82 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Jonas HofmannAnytime scorer4.92 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Jae-Sung LeeAnytime scorer5.50 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Otto RuoppiAnytime scorer5.70 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Edmond TapsobaAnytime scorer9.00 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Miguel GutierrezAnytime scorer9.50 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Lucas VazquezAnytime scorer9.62 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Dominik KohrAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Phillipp MweneAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Silvan WidmerAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Sota KawasakiAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Jarell QuansahAnytime scorer11.30 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Rael NakuzolaAnytime scorer11.30 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Anthony CaciAnytime scorer12.00 QuinnBet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Guela DoueAnytime scorer12.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Eric MartelAnytime scorer12.30 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Tim OermannAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Danny Da CostaAnytime scorer13.30 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Fabio GruberAnytime scorer14.70 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Kaishu SanoAnytime scorer15.70 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Stefan BellAnytime scorer15.70 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Aleix GarciaAnytime scorer17.20 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Facundo MedinaAnytime scorer17.20 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Robert AndrichAnytime scorer17.20 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Ezequiel FernandezAnytime scorer17.70 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Kacper PotulskiAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Lennard MaloneyAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Loic BadeAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Stefan PoschAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Moussa DiabyAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Ibrahim MazaAssistsover 0.54.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Afonso MoreiraAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Jonas HofmannAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Nathan TellaAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Sheraldo BeckerAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Nadiem AmiriAssistsover 0.55.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Martin TerrierAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Aleix GarciaAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 03:13 UTC
Benedict HollerbachAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Christian KofaneAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Eliesse Ben SeghirAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Malik TillmanAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 03:13 UTC
Miguel GutierrezAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Rael NakuzolaAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Victor BonifaceAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC