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Match board · Bundesliga · 2026-10-09

Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen

Borussia Dortmund
58.2%
Draw
21.4%
Werder Bremen
20.4%
Headline value
+27.0%
Niclas Fullkrug · SOT
xG 2 – 1.1Borussia Dortmund form WWWWWWerder Bremen form WDWLL

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

BESTNiclas Fullkrugshots on target (SOT)Won2.10now 1.7273+27.0%

Player props

SOT · 9 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Niclas Fullkrugover 0.51.341.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+16.7%
Serhou Guirassyover 0.51.231.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-7.9%
Maximilian Beierover 0.52.091.4706 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-20.2%
Fabio Silvaover 0.52.241.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-33.2%
Ethan Nwaneriover 0.53.471.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-34.8%
Carney Chukwuemekaover 0.513.012.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-37.8%
Cedric Ittenover 0.57.181.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-41.6%
Serhou Guirassyover 1.52.021.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-12.5%
Fabio Silvaover 1.58.432.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 03:13 UTC
-32.6%
Tackles · 9 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Olivier Demanover 0.51.041.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+0.7%
Jobe Bellinghamover 0.51.141.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+0.5%
Ludovit Reisover 0.51.051.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+0.0%
Ramy Bensebainiover 0.51.171.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-2.2%
Marco Grullover 0.51.211.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 03:13 UTC
-4.9%
Mitchell Weiserover 0.51.161.0909 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-5.8%
Amos Pieperover 0.51.181.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-6.3%
Niklas Starkover 0.51.311.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-13.7%
Marco Friedlover 0.51.521.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-24.3%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultBorussia Dortmund win1.721.38 Matchbook · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-14.2%
ResultDraw4.675.75 Unibet · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+4.0%
ResultWerder Bremen win4.909.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+9.3%
CornersOver 11.52.393.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+15.1%
CornersOver 9.51.572.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+13.6%
CornersOver 12.53.085.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+12.4%
CornersOver 7.51.181.3448 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+10.5%
GoalsUnder 3.51.601.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+10.1%
GoalsUnder 2.52.493.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+9.8%
CornersOver 10.52.122.625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+9.0%
GoalsUnder 4.51.251.375 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+7.1%
CornersOver 8.51.451.60 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+6.4%
GoalsUnder 1.55.418.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+6.0%
CornersOver 6.51.121.1818 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+4.7%
GoalsUnder 5.51.101.1538 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+3.9%
GoalsUnder 6.51.041.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+2.0%
GoalsUnder 0.522.2036.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
+1.7%
GoalsOver 9.5713.8181.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-1.1%
GoalsOver 8.5213.5341.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-2.0%
GoalsOver 7.570.3620.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-3.6%
GoalsOver 6.525.7711.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-5.2%
GoalsOver 5.510.606.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-7.2%
CornersUnder 8.53.212.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-8.9%
CornersUnder 6.59.385.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-9.3%
GoalsOver 4.54.963.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-10.1%
CornersUnder 10.51.891.55 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-11.6%
GoalsOver 2.51.671.38 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-12.6%
GoalsOver 3.52.671.9524 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-13.7%
CornersUnder 11.51.721.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-15.1%
CornersUnder 7.56.623.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-15.7%
CornersUnder 12.51.481.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-15.8%
CornersUnder 9.52.741.8696 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
-17.0%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (61)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Serhou GuirassyAnytime scorer1.66 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Fabio SilvaAnytime scorer2.27 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Maximilian BeierAnytime scorer2.96 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Konstantinos KaretsasAnytime scorer3.10 Coral · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Ethan NwaneriAnytime scorer3.40 Coral · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Carney ChukwuemekaAnytime scorer3.60 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Samuele InacioAnytime scorer3.65 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Justin LermaAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Mathis AlbertAnytime scorer3.89 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Niclas FullkrugAnytime scorer3.94 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Salim MusahAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Cedric IttenAnytime scorer4.33 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Kenny QuetantAnytime scorer4.33 AK Bets · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Felix NmechaAnytime scorer5.12 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Justin NjinmahAnytime scorer5.50 BOYLE Sports · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Marco GrullAnytime scorer5.70 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Joey VeermanAnytime scorer5.75 Coral · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Marcel SabitzerAnytime scorer5.80 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Jobe BellinghamAnytime scorer6.68 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Eren DinkciAnytime scorer6.88 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Ramy BensebainiAnytime scorer6.88 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Ivan ChukiAnytime scorer7.27 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Jens StageAnytime scorer7.50 BOYLE Sports · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Paul ErevbenagieAnytime scorer8.06 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Filippo ManeAnytime scorer9.50 BetVictor · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Julian RyersonAnytime scorer9.50 Coral · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Daniel SvenssonAnytime scorer9.62 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Ludovit ReisAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Nico SchlotterbeckAnytime scorer11.00 Skybet · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Waldemar AntonAnytime scorer11.80 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Kouakou GadouAnytime scorer12.00 Betfred · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Kaua PratesAnytime scorer12.30 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Luca ReggianiAnytime scorer12.30 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Arthur AugustoAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Felix AguAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Senne LynenAnytime scorer15.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Mitchell WeiserAnytime scorer15.20 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Moussa NDiayeAnytime scorer16.00 Betfred · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Dariusz StalmachAnytime scorer17.70 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Niklas StarkAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Youri RegeerAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Amos PieperAnytime scorer23.00 Betfred · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Marco FriedlAnytime scorer23.00 bet365 · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Mick SchmetgensAnytime scorer23.00 Skybet · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Olivier DemanAnytime scorer23.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Mats HeitmannAnytime scorer26.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Oskar WojcikAnytime scorer26.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Mathis AlbertAssistsover 0.53.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Konstantinos KaretsasAssistsover 0.53.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Samuele InacioAssistsover 0.53.70 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Joey VeermanAssistsover 0.53.90 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Maximilian BeierAssistsover 0.54.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Fabio SilvaAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Marcel SabitzerAssistsover 0.54.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Carney ChukwuemekaAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Ethan NwaneriAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Serhou GuirassyAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Daniel SvenssonAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Jobe BellinghamAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Paul ErevbenagieAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 09:13 UTC
Ramy BensebainiAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 03:13 UTC