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Match board · La Liga · 2026-10-17

Villarreal v Elche

Villarreal
60.3%
Draw
20.5%
Elche
19.1%
Headline value
—
xG 2.1 – 1.1Villarreal form LWWLLElche form DWLDL

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Lucas Cepedaover 0.51.761.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-5.1%
Fernando Ninoover 0.51.561.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-7.1%
Georges Mikautadzeover 0.51.361.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-13.9%
Nicolas Pepeover 0.51.461.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-15.0%
Pape Gueyeover 0.52.331.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-20.8%
Moreno Gerardover 0.51.691.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-26.4%
Alberto Moleiroover 0.51.861.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-32.0%
Carlos Romeroover 0.53.971.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-32.7%
Ilias Akhomachover 0.52.471.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-36.4%
Tani Oluwaseyiover 0.52.431.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-38.9%
Georges Mikautadzeover 1.52.611.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-21.6%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultVillarreal win1.661.48 Unibet · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-7.3%
ResultDraw4.875.00 Betfred · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+0.5%
ResultElche win5.226.50 Betfred · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+3.8%
CornersUnder 8.51.912.60 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
+14.0%
CornersUnder 9.51.631.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
+8.9%
CornersUnder 11.51.201.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
+8.1%
CornersUnder 10.51.441.55 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
+4.8%
CornersUnder 7.53.213.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
+4.4%
GoalsUnder 3.51.661.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
+2.4%
GoalsUnder 2.52.632.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
+2.3%
GoalsUnder 1.55.846.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
+1.7%
CornersUnder 12.51.171.1818 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
+1.2%
GoalsUnder 4.51.281.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
+0.3%
GoalsUnder 5.51.121.1176 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-0.0%
GoalsUnder 6.51.051.04 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-0.6%
GoalsUnder 0.524.5321.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-0.7%
GoalsOver 8.5175.0051.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-1.4%
GoalsOver 7.559.4226.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-2.2%
GoalsOver 5.59.497.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-2.8%
GoalsOver 6.522.4113.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-3.2%
GoalsOver 1.51.211.1538 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-3.8%
GoalsOver 2.51.611.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-4.7%
GoalsOver 4.54.563.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-4.7%
CornersOver 7.51.451.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-6.1%
GoalsOver 3.52.522.15 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-6.8%
CornersOver 12.57.034.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-8.0%
CornersOver 10.53.262.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-11.0%
CornersOver 9.52.591.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-13.7%
CornersOver 11.55.923.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-14.4%
CornersOver 8.52.101.5455 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
-17.2%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (64)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Georges MikautadzeAnytime scorer1.95 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Gerard MorenoAnytime scorer2.08 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ayoze PerezAnytime scorer2.15 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nicolas PepeAnytime scorer2.40 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Tani OluwaseyiAnytime scorer2.45 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Alberto MoleiroAnytime scorer2.62 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ilias AkhomachAnytime scorer2.85 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Tajon BuchananAnytime scorer3.10 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Fernando NinoAnytime scorer3.25 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ezequiel PonceAnytime scorer3.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Abiel OsorioAnytime scorer3.90 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Pape Habib GueyeAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Alassane DiattaAnytime scorer4.10 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Lucas CepedaAnytime scorer4.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Adam BoayarAnytime scorer4.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Facundo BuonanotteAnytime scorer4.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nathan-Dylan SalibaAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Tete MorenteAnytime scorer5.00 Unibet · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Yago AlonsoAnytime scorer5.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Alex FreemanAnytime scorer5.25 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Carlos RomeroAnytime scorer5.25 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
German ValeraAnytime scorer5.25 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Carlos MaciaAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Santiago ComesanaAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ali HouaryAnytime scorer5.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Grady DianganaAnytime scorer6.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Fernandez JosanAnytime scorer7.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Santiago MourinoAnytime scorer7.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Sergi CardonaAnytime scorer7.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Renato VeigaAnytime scorer7.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Thomas LemarAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Pau NavarroAnytime scorer8.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Federico RedondoAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Gonzalo VillarAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Carvalho Martim NetoAnytime scorer9.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Javier MorcilloAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Logan CostaAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Marc AguadoAnytime scorer9.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Roy RevivoAnytime scorer10.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Juan FoythAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ruben SanchezAnytime scorer11.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Buba SangareAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Kevin LomonacoAnytime scorer13.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Matia BarzicAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Pedro BigasAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Bambo DiabyAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Victor ChustAnytime scorer21.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nicolas PepeAssistsover 0.53.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
Nizar El JmiliAssistsover 0.53.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
Alberto MoleiroAssistsover 0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
Ilias AkhomachAssistsover 0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
Ayoze PerezAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Moreno GerardAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
Tajon BuchananAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Georges MikautadzeAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
Carlos RomeroAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
Santiago ComesanaAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Tani OluwaseyiAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
Alex FreemanAssistsover 0.55.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
Alassane DiattaAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
Carlos MaciaAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Fernandez JosanAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Nathan-Dylan SalibaAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC
Pape GueyeAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-13 05:43 UTC