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Match board · La Liga · 2026-10-18

Real Madrid v Sevilla

Real Madrid
71.7%
Draw
17.9%
Sevilla
10.4%
Headline value
—
xG 2.2 – 0.7Real Madrid form WLWWLSevilla form LWWDL

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 15 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Kylian Mbappeover 0.51.081.0303 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-4.6%
Jude Bellinghamover 0.51.651.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-8.7%
Lucas Stassinover 0.52.091.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-10.1%
Carlos Espiover 0.51.311.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-14.4%
Endrickover 0.51.461.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-19.2%
Arda Gulerover 0.52.271.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-21.2%
Denzel Dumfriesover 0.53.471.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-29.1%
Isaac Romeroover 0.53.311.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-29.8%
Brahim Diazover 0.53.471.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-34.8%
Yan Diomandeover 0.52.501.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-37.0%
Robbie Ureover 0.55.061.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-40.3%
Kylian Mbappeover 1.51.371.2222 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-8.8%
Carlos Espiover 1.52.351.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-24.1%
Endrickover 1.53.131.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-26.0%
Kylian Mbappeover 2.52.091.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-12.1%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultReal Madrid win1.391.27 Betfair · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-7.0%
ResultDraw5.607.08 Betfair · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+3.7%
ResultSevilla win9.6011.50 10bet · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+1.7%
CornersOver 11.51.912.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+16.7%
CornersOver 10.51.692.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+14.7%
GoalsUnder 3.51.491.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+14.6%
GoalsUnder 2.52.243.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+13.8%
GoalsUnder 4.51.201.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+9.8%
GoalsUnder 1.54.667.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+8.1%
CornersOver 9.51.571.7692 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+7.0%
GoalsUnder 5.51.081.1538 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+5.9%
CornersOver 7.51.201.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+3.6%
GoalsUnder 6.51.031.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+1.9%
GoalsUnder 7.51.011.02 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+1.0%
CornersOver 8.51.451.4545 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+0.1%
GoalsUnder 8.5—1.004 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+0.1%
GoalsOver 8.5327.0341.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-2.1%
GoalsOver 7.5101.1721.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-3.8%
GoalsOver 6.534.8211.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-6.2%
CornersUnder 8.53.212.625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-7.0%
GoalsOver 5.513.485.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-10.0%
CornersUnder 7.56.083.60 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-11.3%
GoalsOver 1.51.271.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-11.5%
CornersUnder 9.52.742.0345 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-12.7%
GoalsOver 4.55.943.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-14.4%
GoalsOver 3.53.032.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-17.0%
GoalsOver 2.51.801.38 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-17.1%
CornersUnder 10.52.451.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-21.0%
CornersUnder 11.52.101.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-23.9%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (57)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Kylian MbappeAnytime scorer1.444 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Carlos EspiAnytime scorer1.727 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
EndrickAnytime scorer2.10 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Vinicius JrAnytime scorer2.10 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Yan DiomandeAnytime scorer2.40 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jude BellinghamAnytime scorer2.875 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Arda GulerAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Brahim DiazAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Isaac RomeroAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Robbie UreAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Thiago PitarchAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Denzel DumfriesAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Lucas StassinAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Federico ValverdeAnytime scorer4.75 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Bernardo SilvaAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Chidera EjukeAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Gerard Peque FernandezAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Miguel SierraAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Alfonso GonzalezAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Alvaro CarrerasAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Aurelien TchouameniAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Dean HuijsenAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Eduardo CamavingaAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Felix CorreiaAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Gabriel Eder MilitaoAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Marc CucurellaAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Trent Alexander-ArnoldAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ruben VargasAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Antonio RudigerAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ibrahima KonateAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Giorgi KochorashviliAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jon GuridiAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Manu BuenoAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Nico GuillenAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Andres CastrinAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Lucien AgoumeAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jose CarmonaAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Juan IglesiasAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Kike SalasAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Youssouf FofanaAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Arouna SanganteAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Gabriel SuazoAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Arda GulerAssistsover 0.52.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Vinicius JrAssistsover 0.52.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
EndrickAssistsover 0.53.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Kylian MbappeAssistsover 0.53.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Trent Alexander-ArnoldAssistsover 0.53.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Yan DiomandeAssistsover 0.53.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Brahim DiazAssistsover 0.53.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Denzel DumfriesAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jude BellinghamAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Federico ValverdeAssistsover 0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Thiago PitarchAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Bernardo SilvaAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Carlos EspiAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Marc CucurellaAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Alvaro CarrerasAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC