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Match board · La Liga · 2026-10-18

Malaga v Real Sociedad

Malaga
25.8%
Draw
28.4%
Real Sociedad
45.8%
Headline value
—
xG 0.9 – 1.3Malaga form DLLDDReal Sociedad form WWLWD

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 10 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Orri Steinn Oskarssonover 0.51.271.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+5.7%
Luka Sucicover 0.51.791.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-4.0%
Mikel Oyarzabalover 0.51.391.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-5.0%
Benat Turrientesover 0.52.091.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-7.8%
Goncalo Guedesover 0.52.011.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-19.4%
David Larrubiaover 0.51.931.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-21.5%
Carlos Chupeteover 0.51.931.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-31.5%
Pablo Martinezover 0.53.971.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-36.7%
Joaquin Munozover 0.510.511.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-54.1%
Juan Cruzover 0.525.501.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-59.7%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultMalaga win3.873.25 Betfair · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-5.0%
ResultDraw3.533.60 Skybet · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+0.6%
ResultReal Sociedad win2.182.20 William Hill · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+0.4%
GoalsUnder 2.51.612.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+13.5%
GoalsUnder 3.51.221.4167 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+11.3%
GoalsUnder 1.52.824.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+10.8%
GoalsUnder 4.51.081.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+7.0%
GoalsUnder 0.59.0313.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+3.4%
GoalsUnder 5.51.031.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+2.3%
GoalsUnder 6.51.011.0125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+0.5%
GoalsUnder 7.5—1.002 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
0.0%
GoalsOver 7.5505.6751.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-1.8%
GoalsOver 6.5134.0226.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-3.1%
GoalsOver 0.51.121.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-6.3%
GoalsOver 5.540.1411.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-6.6%
GoalsOver 4.513.795.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-10.1%
GoalsOver 1.51.551.2727 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-14.0%
GoalsOver 3.55.543.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-15.3%
GoalsOver 2.52.651.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-17.8%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (65)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Carlos ChupeteAnytime scorer2.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Mikel OyarzabalAnytime scorer2.60 Unibet · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Orri Steinn OskarssonAnytime scorer2.65 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Adrian NinoAnytime scorer3.25 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Goncalo GuedesAnytime scorer3.40 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Eneko JaureguiAnytime scorer3.70 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Job OchiengAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
David LarrubiaAnytime scorer4.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ander BarrenetxeaAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Alex MarchalAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Luka SucicAnytime scorer4.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Juan CruzAnytime scorer4.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Pablo MarinAnytime scorer4.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Takefusa KuboAnytime scorer4.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Francisco JuaniAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Julen LobeteAnytime scorer5.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Rafa RodriguezAnytime scorer5.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Barragan Carlos SolerAnytime scorer5.25 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Haitam AbaidaAnytime scorer5.25 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Joaquin MunozAnytime scorer5.25 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Arsen ZakharyanAnytime scorer6.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Pablo MartinezAnytime scorer6.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Benat TurrientesAnytime scorer7.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Yangel HerreraAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Daniel LorenzoAnytime scorer7.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Hector FortAnytime scorer7.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Carlos DotorAnytime scorer8.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ramon EnriquezAnytime scorer8.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Sergio GomezAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Izan MerinoAnytime scorer10.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jens CajusteAnytime scorer10.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jon AramburuAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jon GorrotxategiAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jon PachecoAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Luken BeitiaAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Adam AznouAnytime scorer11.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Aihen MunozAnytime scorer11.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jose SalinasAnytime scorer11.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jon MartinAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Mamadou SarrAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Rafa GarridoAnytime scorer12.00 Unibet · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Alvaro OdriozolaAnytime scorer12.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Angel RecioAnytime scorer12.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Fernando CaleroAnytime scorer12.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Alex PastorAnytime scorer15.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Carlos PugaAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Igor ZubeldiaAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Juan BerrocalAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Moussa DiarraAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Azaceta Einar GalileaAnytime scorer16.00 Unibet · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ander BarrenetxeaAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Goncalo GuedesAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Juan CruzAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Mikel OyarzabalAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ramon EnriquezAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Sergio GomezAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Takefusa KuboAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Alex MarchalAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Izan MerinoAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Luka SucicAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Pablo MartinezAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Barragan Carlos SolerAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Francisco JuaniAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Joaquin MunozAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Orri Steinn OskarssonAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC