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Match board · La Liga · 2026-10-10

Real Madrid v Villarreal

Real Madrid
49.6%
Draw
18.5%
Villarreal
31.9%
Headline value
—
xG 2.6 – 2.1Real Madrid form LWWLWVillarreal form WWLLL

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 14 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Nicolas Pepeover 0.51.591.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+7.3%
Georges Mikautadzeover 0.51.411.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+5.5%
Kylian Mbappeover 0.51.071.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-0.4%
Moreno Gerardover 0.51.881.70 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-5.6%
Carlos Espiover 0.51.271.1818 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-6.0%
Tani Oluwaseyiover 0.52.582.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 03:13 UTC
-6.7%
Jude Bellinghamover 0.51.601.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-9.0%
Endrickover 0.51.461.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-11.3%
Arda Gulerover 0.52.051.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-17.8%
Brahim Diazover 0.53.231.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-27.0%
Yan Diomandeover 0.52.711.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-32.4%
Kylian Mbappeover 1.51.311.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+3.0%
Carlos Espiover 1.52.201.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-10.0%
Kylian Mbappeover 2.51.912.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+4.7%
Tackles · 14 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Aurelien Tchouameniover 0.51.071.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+1.2%
Jude Bellinghamover 0.51.091.0909 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+0.4%
Santiago Mourinoover 0.51.031.0303 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+0.3%
Nathan-Dylan Salibaover 0.51.051.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+0.2%
Pau Navarroover 0.51.081.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-0.8%
Eduardo Camavingaover 0.51.061.04 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-2.1%
Alex Freemanover 0.51.101.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-2.2%
Santiago Comesanaover 0.51.141.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-2.6%
Carlos Romeroover 0.51.101.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-4.5%
Sergi Cardonaover 0.51.151.0909 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-5.1%
Bernardo Silvaover 0.51.171.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-5.3%
Marc Cucurellaover 0.51.201.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-7.8%
Ilias Akhomachover 0.51.491.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 03:13 UTC
-23.0%
Santiago Mourinoover 1.51.141.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-2.3%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultReal Madrid win2.021.40 Ladbrokes · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-21.8%
ResultDraw5.406.10 Matchbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+2.1%
ResultVillarreal win3.147.86 Matchbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+19.1%
GoalsOver 4.51.982.60 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+12.1%
GoalsOver 5.53.024.60 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+11.4%
GoalsOver 3.51.451.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+11.1%
GoalsOver 6.55.129.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+9.0%
CornersUnder 8.52.853.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+8.4%
CornersOver 12.52.653.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+7.5%
CornersUnder 6.55.499.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+7.1%
CornersOver 12.02.653.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+7.0%
GoalsOver 2.51.181.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+7.0%
CornersOver 11.02.062.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+6.8%
CornersOver 11.52.062.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+6.8%
CornersOver 10.01.721.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+5.8%
CornersOver 10.51.721.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+5.8%
CornersUnder 7.53.955.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+5.3%
CornersUnder 7.05.497.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+3.9%
GoalsOver 7.59.6215.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+3.7%
CornersUnder 8.03.954.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+3.1%
CornersUnder 9.02.853.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+2.9%
GoalsOver 1.51.051.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+2.5%
GoalsOver 8.519.9029.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+1.6%
GoalsOver 9.545.0367.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+0.7%
CornersUnder 9.52.622.625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+0.1%
GoalsUnder 0.5109.9556.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-0.9%
CornersOver 9.51.621.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-1.9%
CornersOver 9.01.621.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-3.4%
GoalsUnder 1.519.2911.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-3.9%
CornersUnder 10.02.622.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-5.3%
GoalsUnder 7.51.121.0303 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-7.5%
CornersUnder 10.52.392.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-8.2%
CornersOver 8.51.541.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-8.5%
GoalsUnder 2.56.574.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-8.6%
CornersOver 7.51.341.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-8.7%
CornersUnder 12.51.611.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-9.2%
CornersUnder 11.51.941.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-10.3%
GoalsUnder 6.51.241.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-10.4%
CornersOver 6.51.221.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-10.5%
CornersOver 7.01.341.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-11.1%
CornersOver 8.01.541.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-12.0%
GoalsUnder 3.53.232.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-12.5%
GoalsUnder 5.51.501.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-13.2%
CornersUnder 11.02.391.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-13.8%
GoalsUnder 4.52.021.55 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-15.1%
CornersUnder 12.01.941.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-15.1%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (60)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Kylian MbappeAnytime scorer1.46 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Carlos EspiAnytime scorer1.727 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
EndrickAnytime scorer2.10 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Vinicius JrAnytime scorer2.55 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Yan DiomandeAnytime scorer2.90 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Jude BellinghamAnytime scorer3.20 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Georges MikautadzeAnytime scorer3.50 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Ayoze PerezAnytime scorer3.70 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Gerard MorenoAnytime scorer3.75 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Arda GulerAnytime scorer4.00 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Brahim DiazAnytime scorer4.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Tani OluwaseyiAnytime scorer4.50 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Nicolas PepeAnytime scorer4.75 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Alberto MoleiroAnytime scorer5.00 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Tajon BuchananAnytime scorer5.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Federico ValverdeAnytime scorer6.00 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Thiago PitarchAnytime scorer6.00 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Dean HuijsenAnytime scorer6.50 BetVictor · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Ilias AkhomachAnytime scorer6.50 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Nizar El JmiliAnytime scorer6.50 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Pape Habib GueyeAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Bernardo SilvaAnytime scorer7.00 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Sergio MartinezAnytime scorer7.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Denzel DumfriesAnytime scorer8.00 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Raul AsencioAnytime scorer8.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Jorge CesteroAnytime scorer8.50 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Santiago ComesanaAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Alassane DiattaAnytime scorer9.50 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Gabriel Eder MilitaoAnytime scorer10.00 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Trent Alexander-ArnoldAnytime scorer11.00 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Alvaro CarrerasAnytime scorer12.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Carlos RomeroAnytime scorer12.00 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Eduardo CamavingaAnytime scorer12.00 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Antonio RudigerAnytime scorer13.00 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Marc CucurellaAnytime scorer13.00 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Nathan-Dylan SalibaAnytime scorer13.00 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Aurelien TchouameniAnytime scorer13.30 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Alex FreemanAnytime scorer15.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Carlos MaciaAnytime scorer15.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Ibrahima KonateAnytime scorer17.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Mario RivasAnytime scorer17.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Sergi CardonaAnytime scorer17.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Juan FoythAnytime scorer19.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Logan CostaAnytime scorer19.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Renato VeigaAnytime scorer21.00 Betfred · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Santiago MourinoAnytime scorer21.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Pau NavarroAnytime scorer51.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Arda GulerAssistsover 0.52.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Brahim DiazAssistsover 0.53.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Yan DiomandeAssistsover 0.53.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Kylian MbappeAssistsover 0.53.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Trent Alexander-ArnoldAssistsover 0.53.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Jude BellinghamAssistsover 0.53.90 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
EndrickAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Carlos EspiAssistsover 0.54.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Bernardo SilvaAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Federico ValverdeAssistsover 0.55.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Denzel DumfriesAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Nicolas PepeAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Jorge CesteroAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC