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Match board · 2026-09-12

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano

Real Madrid
46.9%
Draw
23.8%
Rayo Vallecano
29.4%
Headline value
+15.9%
Under 3.5 · Goals
xG 1.7 – 1.3Real Madrid form LWWWWRayo Vallecano form WLDLL

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

VALUEUnder 3.5Goals2.05now 2.25+15.9%
VALUEUnder 2.5Goals3.6364now 4.00+14.8%
VALUEUnder 4.5Goals1.4545now 1.5333+12.8%

Player props

Tackles · 9 lines
Florian Lejeune o0.51.101.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+0.8%
Jude Bellingham o0.51.151.125 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-1.8%
Oscar Valentin o0.51.081.04 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-3.4%
Andrei Ratiu o0.51.091.05 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-3.6%
Eduardo Camavinga o0.51.081.04 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-4.0%
Cabrera Unai Lopez o0.51.211.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-7.4%
Pathe Ciss o0.51.251.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-10.0%
Marc Cucurella o0.51.321.1333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-12.4%
Adria Pedrosa o0.51.261.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-12.7%
SOT · 10 lines
Kylian Mbappe o0.51.061.04 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-1.8%
Jude Bellingham o0.51.491.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-6.3%
Federico Valverde o0.52.141.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-7.8%
Carlos Espi o0.51.261.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-10.4%
Arda Guler o0.51.951.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-17.9%
Brahim Diaz o0.52.711.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-28.3%
Yan Diomande o0.52.191.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-34.3%
Kylian Mbappe o1.51.281.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-5.1%
Carlos Espi o1.52.121.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-16.4%
Kylian Mbappe o2.51.821.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-5.1%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edge
ResultReal Madrid win2.131.17 Ladbrokes · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-38.6%
ResultDraw4.2110.30 Matchbook · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+14.1%
ResultRayo Vallecano win3.4121.00 Matchbook · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+24.6%
GoalsUnder 3.51.552.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+20.3%
GoalsUnder 2.52.364.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+17.3%
GoalsUnder 4.51.231.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+16.3%
CornersUnder 6.54.077.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+11.2%
GoalsUnder 1.55.0211.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+10.8%
GoalsUnder 5.51.091.2308 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+10.4%
CornersOver 10.51.892.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+8.5%
CornersOver 10.01.902.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+8.3%
CornersOver 9.51.571.80 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+8.2%
CornersOver 9.01.591.80 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+7.5%
CornersUnder 7.04.065.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+6.4%
GoalsUnder 6.51.031.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+5.7%
CornersUnder 7.53.674.60 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+5.5%
CornersOver 12.03.584.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+4.1%
GoalsUnder 0.520.0967.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+3.5%
CornersOver 11.02.733.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+3.3%
CornersOver 11.52.803.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+2.4%
GoalsUnder 7.51.011.0303 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+1.8%
CornersOver 12.53.754.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+1.7%
CornersOver 8.51.461.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
+1.6%
CornersUnder 8.53.153.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-0.6%
CornersOver 8.01.461.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-0.8%
GoalsOver 9.5907.0467.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-1.4%
CornersUnder 11.51.561.5238 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-1.4%
CornersUnder 12.51.361.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-1.7%
CornersUnder 8.03.733.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-1.8%
GoalsOver 8.5262.9526.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-3.5%
CornersOver 7.51.371.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-5.0%
GoalsOver 7.584.0015.4615 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-5.3%
CornersUnder 9.52.762.30 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-7.3%
CornersOver 7.01.381.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-7.5%
GoalsOver 6.529.849.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-7.8%
CornersUnder 10.52.121.80 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-8.5%
CornersUnder 9.03.222.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-9.0%
CornersUnder 12.01.571.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-11.3%
GoalsOver 1.51.251.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-13.3%
CornersOver 6.51.331.125 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-13.4%
GoalsOver 5.511.924.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-13.8%
CornersUnder 10.02.771.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-16.2%
CornersUnder 11.02.151.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-18.6%
GoalsOver 4.55.412.6111 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-19.8%
GoalsOver 2.51.731.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-20.1%
GoalsOver 3.52.831.70 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
-23.5%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (70)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Kylian MbappeAnytime scorer1.333 bet365 · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Carlos EspiAnytime scorer1.70 BetVictor · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
de Goes RodrygoAnytime scorer2.05 BetVictor · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Vinicius JrAnytime scorer2.18 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
EndrickAnytime scorer2.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Jude BellinghamAnytime scorer2.625 Paddy Power · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Yan DiomandeAnytime scorer2.70 Coral · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Arda GulerAnytime scorer3.45 10bet · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Brahim DiazAnytime scorer3.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Federico ValverdeAnytime scorer4.75 Coral · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Jorge De FrutosAnytime scorer5.00 BOYLE Sports · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Raul De TomasAnytime scorer5.00 BetAhoy · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Thiago PitarchAnytime scorer5.21 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Bernardo SilvaAnytime scorer5.50 Coral · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Etienne EtooAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Alexandre AlemaoAnytime scorer5.90 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Gabriel Eder MilitaoAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Randy NtekaAnytime scorer6.49 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Sergio CamelloAnytime scorer6.49 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Sergio MartinezAnytime scorer6.49 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Denzel DumfriesAnytime scorer6.50 Coral · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Jorge CesteroAnytime scorer7.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Alvaro GarciaAnytime scorer7.47 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Fran PerezAnytime scorer7.50 BOYLE Sports · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Raul AsencioAnytime scorer7.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Trent Alexander-ArnoldAnytime scorer7.50 Coral · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Aurelien TchouameniAnytime scorer8.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Eduardo CamavingaAnytime scorer8.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Dean HuijsenAnytime scorer8.50 Coral · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Isi PalazonAnytime scorer8.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Antonio RudigerAnytime scorer9.43 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Alvaro CarrerasAnytime scorer9.50 William Hill · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Pedro DiazAnytime scorer9.50 AK Bets · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Rayane BelaidAnytime scorer9.82 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Marc CucurellaAnytime scorer10.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Georgiy TsitaishviliAnytime scorer10.80 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Ferland MendyAnytime scorer12.00 BetVictor · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Ibrahima KonateAnytime scorer12.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Ivan AlonsoAnytime scorer14.20 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Jozhua VertrouwdAnytime scorer15.00 BOYLE Sports · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Cabrera Unai LopezAnytime scorer16.20 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Pathe CissAnytime scorer16.20 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Bouare GnangoroAnytime scorer17.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Mario RivasAnytime scorer18.60 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Samu BecerraAnytime scorer18.60 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Adria PedrosaAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Andrei RatiuAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Florian LejeuneAnytime scorer23.00 BetVictor · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Luiz FelipeAnytime scorer23.00 BOYLE Sports · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Marash KumbullaAnytime scorer23.00 Paddy Power · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Marco RomanAnytime scorer23.00 Paddy Power · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Oscar ValentinAnytime scorer23.00 BetVictor · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Pelayo FernandezAnytime scorer29.00 BetVictor · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Mujaid SadickAnytime scorer31.00 Paddy Power · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Sergio LozanoAnytime scorer36.00 Paddy Power · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Marco de Las SiasAnytime scorer41.00 Paddy Power · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Ivan BalliuAnytime scorer56.00 Paddy Power · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Arda GulerAssistso0.52.60 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Brahim DiazAssistso0.53.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Trent Alexander-ArnoldAssistso0.53.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Jorge CesteroAssistso0.53.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Kylian MbappeAssistso0.53.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Yan DiomandeAssistso0.53.60 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Jude BellinghamAssistso0.53.80 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
EndrickAssistso0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Carlos EspiAssistso0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Federico ValverdeAssistso0.54.80 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Bernardo SilvaAssistso0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Denzel DumfriesAssistso0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC
Marc CucurellaAssistso0.55.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-12 09:13 UTC