xOdds
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Match board · 2026-08-28

Alaves v Villarreal

Alaves
34.1%
Draw
27%
Villarreal
38.9%
Headline value
+21.3%
Under 9.5 · Corners
xG 1.2 – 1.3Alaves form DWLWWVillarreal form DDLLD

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

VALUEUnder 9.5CornersLost1.95+21.3%
VALUEUnder 10.5CornersLost1.60+21.1%
VALUEUnder 8.5CornersLost2.60+17.9%
VALUEUnder 11.5CornersLost1.3684+16.2%
VALUEUnder 10.0CornersLost1.66+13.3%

Player props

Tackles · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Alex Freemanover 0.51.031.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+5.2%
Nahuel Tenagliaover 0.51.111.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 03:13 UTC
+2.9%
Santiago Mourinoover 0.51.011.04 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+2.6%
Antonio Blancoover 0.51.061.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+0.9%
Pau Navarroover 0.51.061.05 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-0.7%
Carlos Romeroover 0.51.061.05 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-0.8%
Santiago Comesanaover 0.51.191.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 03:13 UTC
-3.2%
Sergi Cardonaover 0.51.191.0909 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-7.7%
Nicolas Valentiniover 0.51.211.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-8.1%
Pape Gueyeover 0.51.291.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-12.3%
Juan Foythover 0.51.351.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-15.9%
shots on target (SOT) · 7 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Ilias Akhomachover 0.51.901.9524 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+1.5%
Georges Mikautadzeover 0.51.371.40 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+1.3%
Moreno Gerardover 0.51.561.4762 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-3.8%
Tani Oluwaseyiover 0.51.881.75 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-3.9%
Alberto Moleiroover 0.52.581.8696 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-14.8%
Lucas Boyeover 0.52.051.4762 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-18.9%
Mariano Diazover 0.53.751.65 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-34.0%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultAlaves win2.933.30 Matchbook · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+3.8%
ResultDraw3.713.60 BetVictor · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-0.8%
ResultVillarreal win2.572.30 IvyBet · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-4.6%
CornersUnder 9.51.381.95 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+21.3%
CornersUnder 10.51.201.60 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+21.1%
CornersUnder 8.51.772.60 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+17.9%
CornersUnder 11.51.121.3684 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+16.2%
CornersUnder 10.01.361.66 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+13.3%
CornersUnder 7.52.773.75 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+9.4%
CornersUnder 12.51.101.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+7.9%
GoalsUnder 3.51.321.4167 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+5.2%
GoalsUnder 2.51.842.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+4.4%
GoalsUnder 1.53.484.0435 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+4.0%
CornersUnder 6.54.745.80 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+3.9%
GoalsUnder 4.51.121.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+3.4%
GoalsUnder 5.51.041.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+1.7%
GoalsUnder 0.512.1815.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
+1.5%
GoalsOver 7.5235.4867.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-1.1%
GoalsOver 8.5877.0067.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-1.4%
GoalsOver 6.570.4926.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-2.4%
GoalsOver 5.523.8012.6552 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-3.7%
GoalsOver 4.59.196.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-4.5%
GoalsOver 1.51.401.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-6.5%
CornersOver 6.51.271.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-6.8%
GoalsOver 3.54.133.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-8.0%
GoalsOver 2.52.191.8182 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-9.4%
CornersOver 7.51.561.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-11.1%
CornersOver 12.511.395.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-11.2%
CornersOver 11.59.323.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-17.8%
CornersOver 8.52.291.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-20.0%
CornersOver 9.53.652.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-22.6%
CornersOver 10.56.092.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-23.6%
CornersOver 10.06.052.0435 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 09:13 UTC
-32.4%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.