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Match board · 2026-08-23

Atletico Madrid v Villarreal

Atletico Madrid
35.4%
Draw
29.1%
Villarreal
35.4%
Headline value
+22.4%
Under 7.5 · Corners
xG 1.1 – 1.1Atletico Madrid form WWLWWVillarreal form DLLDW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

VALUEUnder 7.5CornersLost4.20+22.4%
VALUEUnder 8.0CornersPush4.00+21.7%
VALUEUnder 6.5CornersLost6.50+20.8%
VALUEUnder 7.0CornersLost6.00+20.3%
VALUEUnder 8.5CornersWon2.90+17.9%
VALUEUnder 9.0CornersWon2.80+17.8%
VALUEUnder 2.5Goals2.20+16.8%
VALUEUnder 3.5Goals1.50+15.3%
VALUEUnder 9.5Corners2.15+14.4%
VALUEUnder 1.5Goals4.50+13.2%
VALUEVillarreal winResult4.43+12.9%
VALUEUnder 10.0Corners2.10+12.5%

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 9 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Nicolas Pepeover 0.51.631.9167 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+9.2%
Moreno Gerardover 0.51.581.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+3.2%
Georges Mikautadzeover 0.51.511.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+2.4%
Ilias Akhomachover 0.51.951.9167 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-0.9%
Ademola Lookmanover 0.51.571.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-3.1%
Alex Baenaover 0.52.712.08 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-11.2%
Kang-In Leeover 0.52.541.85 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-14.7%
Alexander Sorlothover 0.57.181.2727 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-64.6%
Alexander Sorlothover 1.598.182.15 Oddschecker · 2026-08-22 21:13 UTC
-45.5%
Tackles · 14 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Morten Hjulmandover 0.51.081.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 03:13 UTC
+2.9%
Santiago Mourinoover 0.51.021.04 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+1.9%
Johnny Cardosoover 0.51.051.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+1.3%
Marcos Llorenteover 0.51.081.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+0.5%
Pau Navarroover 0.51.081.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-1.1%
Jorge Kokeover 0.51.151.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-3.0%
Giuliano Simeoneover 0.51.171.125 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-3.7%
Sergi Cardonaover 0.51.221.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-8.8%
Pape Gueyeover 0.51.301.1333 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-11.5%
Ilias Akhomachover 0.51.311.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-13.9%
Alex Grimaldoover 0.51.461.125 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-20.5%
Carlos Maciaover 0.51.511.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-23.6%
Alex Freemanover 0.51.461.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-24.0%
Carlos Romeroover 0.51.511.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-27.0%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultAtletico Madrid win2.821.87 Matchbook · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-18.0%
ResultDraw3.433.90 IvyBet · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+3.5%
ResultVillarreal win2.824.43 Matchbook · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+12.9%
CornersUnder 7.52.164.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+22.4%
CornersUnder 8.02.144.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+21.7%
CornersUnder 6.52.766.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+20.8%
CornersUnder 7.02.716.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+20.3%
CornersUnder 8.51.912.90 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+17.9%
CornersUnder 9.01.872.80 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+17.8%
GoalsUnder 2.51.612.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+16.8%
GoalsUnder 3.51.221.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+15.3%
CornersUnder 9.51.642.15 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+14.4%
GoalsUnder 1.52.824.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+13.2%
CornersUnder 10.01.662.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+12.5%
GoalsUnder 4.51.081.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+9.4%
CornersUnder 11.01.461.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+8.7%
CornersUnder 10.51.461.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+8.7%
CornersUnder 12.51.201.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+5.7%
GoalsUnder 0.59.0317.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+5.2%
GoalsUnder 5.51.031.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+5.2%
CornersUnder 11.51.371.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+3.9%
CornersUnder 12.01.381.40 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+1.2%
GoalsOver 7.5505.6751.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-1.8%
GoalsOver 6.5134.0223.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-3.6%
GoalsOver 5.540.1413.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-5.2%
CornersOver 11.53.722.80 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-8.8%
CornersOver 12.56.043.90 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-9.1%
CornersOver 11.03.712.70 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-10.1%
GoalsOver 4.513.795.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-10.9%
CornersOver 12.06.053.60 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-11.2%
CornersOver 10.53.192.15 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-15.2%
CornersOver 10.03.152.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-15.8%
GoalsOver 1.51.551.2308 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-16.7%
GoalsOver 3.55.542.75 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-18.3%
CornersOver 9.52.561.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-18.8%
GoalsOver 2.52.651.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-20.2%
CornersOver 9.02.541.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-20.6%
CornersOver 8.52.101.4545 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-21.1%
CornersOver 6.51.571.125 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-25.1%
CornersOver 7.51.861.25 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-26.3%
CornersOver 8.02.161.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-27.0%
CornersOver 7.01.881.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-30.1%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.