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Match board · Premier League · 2026-10-24

Aston Villa v Manchester City

Aston Villa
28.1%
Draw
20.4%
Manchester City
51.5%
Headline value
+25.8%
Over 12.5 · Corners
xG 1.6 – 2.2Aston Villa form WWDWLManchester City form WWLWW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

BESTOver 12.5Corners4.3333+25.8%
VALUEOver 11.5Corners3.10+24.6%

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 8 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Erling Haalandover 0.51.131.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+10.8%
Nicolas Jacksonover 0.51.391.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+3.0%
Ibrahim Mbayeover 0.51.791.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+1.4%
Phil Fodenover 0.51.761.70 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-2.0%
Rayan Cherkiover 0.51.711.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-6.7%
Enzo Fernandezover 0.52.071.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-9.6%
Jeremy Dokuover 0.52.301.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-14.4%
Alejandro Garnachoover 0.53.161.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-26.3%
Tackles · 12 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Aaron Wan-Bissakaover 0.51.071.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-1.0%
Matty Cashover 0.51.071.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-1.0%
Iliman-Cheikh Ndiayeover 0.51.141.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-1.5%
Boubacar Kamaraover 0.51.101.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-2.3%
Lamare Bogardeover 0.51.121.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-6.1%
Abduqodir Khusanovover 0.51.171.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-7.1%
Enzo Fernandezover 0.51.281.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-9.2%
Matteo Ruggeriover 0.51.231.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-11.1%
Ibrahim Mbayeover 0.51.361.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-14.2%
Matheus Nunesover 0.51.301.0909 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-14.9%
Leon Goretzkaover 0.51.391.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-20.1%
Mateo Kovacicover 0.51.651.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-32.8%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultAston Villa win3.564.75 bet365 · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
+7.0%
ResultDraw4.894.33 Matchbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
-2.6%
ResultManchester City win1.94—no price—
CornersOver 12.52.054.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+25.8%
CornersOver 11.51.763.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+24.6%
CornersOver 10.51.502.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+23.2%
CornersOver 9.51.301.7778 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+20.6%
CornersOver 8.51.181.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+17.8%
CornersOver 10.01.502.0345 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+17.5%
CornersOver 9.01.301.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+15.0%
CornersOver 7.51.081.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+12.4%
GoalsOver 3.51.902.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+9.2%
GoalsOver 4.53.014.1538 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+9.1%
GoalsOver 2.51.371.55 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+8.6%
GoalsOver 5.55.428.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+6.7%
GoalsOver 1.51.121.1818 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+4.7%
GoalsOver 6.511.0017.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+3.2%
GoalsOver 7.524.9334.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+1.1%
GoalsOver 8.562.5681.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
+0.4%
GoalsUnder 0.544.7017.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-3.6%
GoalsUnder 6.51.101.0303 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-6.2%
GoalsUnder 1.59.315.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-7.4%
GoalsUnder 5.51.231.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-9.3%
GoalsUnder 2.53.722.55 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-12.3%
GoalsUnder 4.51.501.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-13.2%
GoalsUnder 3.52.111.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-14.6%
CornersUnder 7.513.243.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-18.8%
CornersUnder 8.56.432.625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-22.5%
CornersUnder 9.54.332.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-26.9%
CornersUnder 10.53.001.6471 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-27.4%
CornersUnder 11.52.321.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-28.3%
CornersUnder 9.06.432.2353 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-29.2%
CornersUnder 12.51.961.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-32.2%
CornersUnder 10.04.331.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
-34.0%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (60)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Erling HaalandAnytime scorer1.87 Coral · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Floyd SambaAnytime scorer2.50 AK Bets · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Antoine SemenyoAnytime scorer3.05 IvyBet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Rayan CherkiAnytime scorer3.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Nicolas JacksonAnytime scorer3.25 Skybet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Tammy AbrahamAnytime scorer3.30 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Allan AndradeAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Brian MadjoAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Phil FodenAnytime scorer3.50 Coral · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Iliman-Cheikh NdiayeAnytime scorer3.75 Coral · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Jeremy DokuAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Ryan McAidooAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Johan ManzambiAnytime scorer4.50 AK Bets · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Emiliano BuendiaAnytime scorer5.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Enzo FernandezAnytime scorer5.25 Coral · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Alejandro GarnachoAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Rayan Ait NouriAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Ibrahim MbayeAnytime scorer6.00 Skybet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Alysson EdwardAnytime scorer6.50 Skybet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
John McGinnAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Ross BarkleyAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Nico OReillyAnytime scorer7.50 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
George HemmingsAnytime scorer8.00 Skybet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Elliot AndersonAnytime scorer8.50 Skybet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Mateo KovacicAnytime scorer9.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Leon GoretzkaAnytime scorer9.50 Skybet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Kaden BraithwaiteAnytime scorer10.00 IvyBet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Josko GvardiolAnytime scorer12.00 Skybet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Marc GuehiAnytime scorer12.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Ayyoub BouaddiAnytime scorer13.00 Skybet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Matty CashAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Rico LewisAnytime scorer13.00 Skybet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Vitor ReisAnytime scorer13.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Ian MaatsenAnytime scorer15.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Joao GomesAnytime scorer15.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Ruben DiasAnytime scorer15.00 Skybet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Taylor Harwood-BellisAnytime scorer15.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Tyrone MingsAnytime scorer17.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Abduqodir KhusanovAnytime scorer18.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Matheus NunesAnytime scorer18.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Matteo RuggeriAnytime scorer18.00 IvyBet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Aaron Wan-BissakaAnytime scorer19.00 IvyBet · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Pau TorresAnytime scorer19.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Boubacar KamaraAnytime scorer20.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Lamare BogardeAnytime scorer23.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Victor LindelofAnytime scorer26.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Rayan CherkiAssistsover 0.53.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Jeremy DokuAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Phil FodenAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Floyd SambaAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Antoine SemenyoAssistsover 0.54.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Rayan Ait NouriAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Ryan McAidooAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Enzo FernandezAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Mateo KovacicAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Elliot AndersonAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Matheus NunesAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC
Rico LewisAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Erling HaalandAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 15:13 UTC
Ibrahim MbayeAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-21 05:43 UTC