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Match board · Premier League · 2026-10-17

Newcastle v Aston Villa

Newcastle
32.9%
Draw
25.1%
Aston Villa
42%
Headline value
—
xG 1.3 – 1.5Newcastle form LWLDWAston Villa form DWLDL

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

Tackles · 10 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Emiliano Buendiaover 0.51.111.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+2.7%
Aaron Wan-Bissakaover 0.51.111.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+1.1%
Amar Dedicover 0.51.111.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-0.7%
Matty Cashover 0.51.191.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-4.9%
Boubacar Kamaraover 0.51.151.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-5.2%
Lamare Bogardeover 0.51.151.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-5.3%
Sean Steurover 0.51.241.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-8.1%
Lewis Mileyover 0.51.221.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-9.0%
Matteo Ruggeriover 0.51.381.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-16.4%
Valentino Livramentoover 0.51.361.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-20.8%
shots on target (SOT) · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Nicolas Jacksonover 0.51.441.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-1.8%
Emiliano Buendiaover 0.52.161.85 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-7.8%
Matias Fernandez-Pardoover 0.51.771.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-8.8%
Harvey Barnesover 0.51.801.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-11.2%
Yoane Wissaover 0.51.901.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-13.9%
William Osulaover 0.52.191.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-23.6%
Bazoumana Toureover 0.52.761.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-23.8%
Alejandro Garnachoover 0.52.621.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-25.5%
Ibrahim Mbayeover 0.53.101.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-25.6%
Tammy Abrahamover 0.53.161.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-32.0%
Jacob Murphyover 0.58.201.95 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-39.1%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultNewcastle win3.042.29 Matchbook · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-10.8%
ResultDraw3.983.79 Matchbook · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-1.3%
ResultAston Villa win2.383.11 Matchbook · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+9.8%
GoalsUnder 3.51.451.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+5.6%
GoalsUnder 2.52.132.375 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+4.8%
CornersUnder 7.53.634.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+3.8%
GoalsUnder 1.54.335.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+3.1%
GoalsUnder 4.51.181.2222 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+2.9%
CornersOver 12.53.463.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+2.6%
CornersOver 11.52.622.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+2.5%
GoalsUnder 5.51.071.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+1.2%
CornersOver 10.52.082.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+0.4%
GoalsUnder 0.516.4417.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
+0.2%
CornersUnder 8.52.922.90 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-0.3%
GoalsOver 8.5411.0581.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-1.0%
CornersOver 9.51.731.6923 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-1.3%
GoalsOver 7.5122.9941.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-1.6%
CornersOver 11.02.622.4286 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-2.9%
GoalsOver 6.540.9717.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-3.4%
CornersUnder 9.52.372.1538 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-4.2%
GoalsOver 5.515.369.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-4.6%
CornersOver 8.51.521.4167 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-4.8%
CornersUnder 9.02.922.5143 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-5.5%
CornersOver 10.02.081.8667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-5.6%
CornersUnder 10.51.921.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-5.9%
CornersUnder 11.51.621.4762 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-6.0%
GoalsOver 1.51.301.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-6.4%
CornersUnder 12.51.411.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-6.7%
GoalsOver 4.56.564.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-7.0%
GoalsOver 2.51.881.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-8.8%
CornersOver 9.01.731.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-8.9%
GoalsOver 3.53.252.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-9.2%
CornersUnder 10.02.371.8889 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-10.7%
CornersOver 7.51.381.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-10.9%
CornersUnder 11.01.921.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
-13.2%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (56)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

William OsulaAnytime scorer2.65 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Nicolas JacksonAnytime scorer2.80 AK Bets · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Tammy AbrahamAnytime scorer3.00 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Yoane WissaAnytime scorer3.10 Coral · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Matias Fernandez-PardoAnytime scorer3.20 Coral · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Harvey BarnesAnytime scorer3.30 Coral · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Brian MadjoAnytime scorer3.40 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Michael MillsAnytime scorer3.40 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Vakhtang SaliaAnytime scorer3.40 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Bazoumana ToureAnytime scorer3.60 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Anthony ElangaAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Emiliano BuendiaAnytime scorer4.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Johan ManzambiAnytime scorer4.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Alejandro GarnachoAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Ibrahim MbayeAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Jacob MurphyAnytime scorer4.60 Coral · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Alysson EdwardAnytime scorer5.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Jacob RamseyAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Joe WillockAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Kyran ThompsonAnytime scorer5.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
JoelintonAnytime scorer5.50 Coral · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
John McGinnAnytime scorer5.50 Coral · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Ross BarkleyAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
George HemmingsAnytime scorer6.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Sean SteurAnytime scorer7.25 QuinnBet · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Lewis MileyAnytime scorer8.00 Coral · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Aladji BambaAnytime scorer9.00 QuinnBet · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Joao GomesAnytime scorer9.00 Coral · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Nico GonzalezAnytime scorer9.00 Coral · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Ian MaatsenAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Lewis HallAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Malick ThiawAnytime scorer9.78 QuinnBet · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Amar DedicAnytime scorer10.00 Coral · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Fabian ScharAnytime scorer10.00 QuinnBet · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Matty CashAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Sven BotmanAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Valentino LivramentoAnytime scorer11.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Boubacar KamaraAnytime scorer12.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Matteo RuggeriAnytime scorer12.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Miodrag PivasAnytime scorer12.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Taylor Harwood-BellisAnytime scorer12.00 Coral · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Lamare BogardeAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Pau TorresAnytime scorer15.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Tyrone MingsAnytime scorer15.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Victor LindelofAnytime scorer15.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Aaron Wan-BissakaAnytime scorer17.00 bet365 · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Bazoumana ToureAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Jacob MurphyAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Harvey BarnesAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Alejandro GarnachoAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Emiliano BuendiaAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Ibrahim MbayeAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Matias Fernandez-PardoAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
John McGinnAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Joe WillockAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC
Nicolas JacksonAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-14 05:43 UTC