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Match board · Premier League · 2026-10-18

Leeds v Manchester United

Leeds
37.4%
Draw
25.3%
Manchester United
37.4%
Headline value
—
xG 1.4 – 1.4Leeds form LDWDDManchester United form LDDLD

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

Tackles · 12 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Sean Longstaffover 0.51.061.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+7.0%
Andrey Santosover 0.51.141.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+0.0%
James Justinover 0.51.111.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-0.5%
Ethan Ampaduover 0.51.121.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-0.5%
Anton Stachover 0.51.091.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-0.6%
Melvin Bardover 0.51.151.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-3.6%
Ao Tanakaover 0.51.211.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-5.9%
Leny Yoroover 0.51.241.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-7.1%
Carlos Balebaover 0.51.281.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-9.2%
Gabriel Gudmundssonover 0.51.241.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-9.6%
Ilia Gruevover 0.51.441.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-17.9%
Diogo Dalotover 0.51.421.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-18.4%
shots on target (SOT) · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Matheus Cunhaover 0.51.481.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+3.7%
Bryan Mbeumoover 0.51.531.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+1.7%
Bruno Fernandesover 0.51.821.70 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-3.8%
Dominic Calvert-Lewinover 0.51.531.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-6.1%
Jean-Matteo Bahoyaover 0.52.622.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-11.9%
Harry Wilsonover 0.52.221.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-12.0%
Anton Stachover 0.53.312.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-13.3%
Joshua Zirkzeeover 0.51.991.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-16.3%
Brenden Aaronsonover 0.52.971.95 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-17.6%
Lukas Nmechaover 0.52.091.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-21.4%
Noah Okaforover 0.52.971.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-23.5%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultLeeds win2.682.45 Betfair · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
-3.5%
ResultDraw3.963.70 Coral · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
-1.8%
ResultManchester United win2.68—no price—
CornersOver 9.51.581.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+7.6%
CornersOver 8.51.361.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+7.1%
CornersOver 7.51.181.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+6.7%
CornersOver 10.52.012.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+5.3%
CornersOver 11.52.622.875 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+3.4%
CornersOver 12.53.463.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+2.6%
GoalsUnder 3.51.451.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+2.5%
GoalsUnder 2.52.132.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+2.5%
GoalsUnder 1.54.334.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+2.1%
GoalsUnder 4.51.181.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+1.4%
CornersOver 6.51.101.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+1.1%
GoalsUnder 0.516.4417.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+0.2%
GoalsUnder 5.51.071.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
+0.1%
GoalsOver 8.5411.0581.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-1.0%
GoalsOver 7.5122.9951.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-1.1%
GoalsOver 6.540.9721.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-2.3%
CornersOver 9.01.581.5143 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-2.9%
CornersOver 11.02.622.4167 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-3.2%
GoalsOver 5.515.3610.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-3.5%
CornersOver 10.02.011.8667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-3.8%
GoalsOver 4.56.565.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-4.0%
GoalsOver 1.51.301.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-6.4%
GoalsOver 2.51.881.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-6.9%
GoalsOver 3.53.252.625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-7.3%
CornersUnder 11.51.621.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-7.5%
CornersUnder 7.56.434.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-7.5%
CornersUnder 10.51.991.7143 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-8.1%
CornersUnder 8.53.812.90 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-8.3%
CornersUnder 12.51.411.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-8.9%
CornersUnder 6.511.255.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-9.3%
CornersUnder 9.52.712.15 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-9.6%
CornersUnder 9.03.812.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-13.8%
CornersUnder 11.01.991.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-15.0%
CornersUnder 10.02.711.90 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
-15.7%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (55)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Dominic Calvert-LewinAnytime scorer2.60 Coral · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Benjamin SeskoAnytime scorer2.75 bet365 · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Lukas NmechaAnytime scorer2.80 QuinnBet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Bryan MbeumoAnytime scorer3.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Noah OkaforAnytime scorer3.60 Coral · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Bruno FernandesAnytime scorer3.70 Coral · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Daniel JamesAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Harry WilsonAnytime scorer3.75 Coral · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Santos Matheus CunhaAnytime scorer3.75 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Marcus RashfordAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Jean NegoceAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Joshua ZirkzeeAnytime scorer4.3333 Skybet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Patrick DorguAnytime scorer4.75 bet365 · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Brenden AaronsonAnytime scorer5.00 Skybet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Amad DialloAnytime scorer5.25 Coral · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Anton StachAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Shea LaceyAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Ao TanakaAnytime scorer6.50 Coral · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Mason MountAnytime scorer7.00 Skybet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Sean LongstaffAnytime scorer7.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Tyler FletcherAnytime scorer9.00 Skybet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Youri TielemansAnytime scorer9.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Jayden BogleAnytime scorer9.50 Coral · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Andrey SantosAnytime scorer12.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Carlos BalebaAnytime scorer12.00 Skybet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
James JustinAnytime scorer12.00 Skybet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Jaka BijolAnytime scorer13.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Kobbie MainooAnytime scorer13.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Harry MaguireAnytime scorer14.00 QuinnBet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Ethan AmpaduAnytime scorer15.00 Skybet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Ilia GruevAnytime scorer15.00 Skybet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Tarik MuharemovicAnytime scorer15.00 Skybet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Melvin BardAnytime scorer17.00 Skybet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Nico ElvediAnytime scorer17.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Diogo DalotAnytime scorer19.00 Skybet · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Gabriel GudmundssonAnytime scorer19.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Matthijs de LigtAnytime scorer19.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Lisandro MartinezAnytime scorer20.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Ayden HeavenAnytime scorer23.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Leny YoroAnytime scorer23.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Luke ShawAnytime scorer23.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Noussair MazraouiAnytime scorer31.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-15 15:13 UTC
Bruno FernandesAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
Harry WilsonAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
Anton StachAssistsover 0.55.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
Jean-Matteo BahoyaAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
Matheus CunhaAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
Amad DialloAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
Brenden AaronsonAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
Bryan MbeumoAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
Noah OkaforAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
Sean LongstaffAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
Lukas NmechaAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
Ilia GruevAssistsover 0.57.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC
Melvin BardAssistsover 0.57.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-15 05:43 UTC