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Match board · Premier League · 2026-10-11

Liverpool v Manchester City

Liverpool
31.2%
Draw
21.5%
Manchester City
47.3%
Headline value
+35.6%
Over 12.0 · Corners
xG 1.6 – 2Liverpool form WDWDDManchester City form WWWWW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

BESTOver 12.5Corners3.80now 4.50+31.5%
BESTOver 11.0Corners2.3889now 3.00+26.1%
BESTOver 11.5Corners2.80now 3.00+32.3%
BESTOver 12.0CornersLost4.50now 4.20+35.6%
VALUEOver 10.0Corners1.8462now 2.25+22.7%
BESTOver 10.5Corners2.1538now 2.25+30.5%
BESTOver 9.5Corners1.7273now 1.80+27.0%
VALUEOver 9.0Corners1.4762now 1.7273+17.2%
VALUEOver 8.5Corners1.4545now 1.50+24.1%
BESTOver 8.0CornersWon1.50now 1.4444+26.2%
VALUEOver 7.5Corners1.25now 1.2857+16.4%
VALUEOver 7.0CornersWon1.25now 1.2222+16.4%

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Erling Haalandover 0.51.141.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+7.4%
Dominik Szoboszlaiover 0.51.992.15 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+3.8%
Antoine Semenyoover 0.51.791.7778 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-0.3%
Rayan Cherkiover 0.51.851.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-0.4%
Victor Munozover 0.51.771.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-0.8%
Jeremy Dokuover 0.52.162.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-3.8%
Bradley Barcolaover 0.51.931.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-10.1%
Alexander Isakover 0.51.651.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-10.9%
Cody Gakpoover 0.52.071.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-11.7%
Florian Wirtzover 0.52.712.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-13.1%
Rio Ngumohaover 0.54.521.95 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-29.2%
Tackles · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Elliot Andersonover 0.51.051.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+0.4%
Jeremy Jacquetover 0.51.121.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-0.5%
Abduqodir Khusanovover 0.51.121.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 03:13 UTC
-0.9%
Ayyoub Bouaddiover 0.51.101.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-2.3%
Milos Kerkezover 0.51.141.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-4.7%
Ryan Gravenberchover 0.51.211.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-7.9%
Jeremie Frimpongover 0.51.291.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-12.5%
Konstantinos Tsimikasover 0.51.261.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-13.1%
Matheus Nunesover 0.51.291.0909 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-14.2%
Mateo Kovacicover 0.51.391.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-21.1%
Wataru Endoover 0.51.401.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-22.0%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultLiverpool win3.213.20 Matchbook · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-0.1%
ResultDraw4.653.80 IvyBet · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-4.8%
ResultManchester City win2.11—no price—
CornersOver 12.51.734.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+35.6%
CornersOver 11.01.473.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+34.7%
CornersOver 11.51.473.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+34.7%
CornersOver 12.01.734.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+34.0%
CornersOver 10.01.302.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+32.4%
CornersOver 10.51.302.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+32.4%
CornersOver 9.51.181.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+29.3%
CornersOver 9.01.181.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+27.0%
CornersOver 8.51.081.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+26.2%
CornersOver 8.01.081.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+23.7%
CornersOver 7.51.041.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+18.7%
CornersOver 7.01.041.2222 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+14.6%
CornersOver 6.51.011.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+10.2%
GoalsOver 3.52.062.55 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+9.3%
GoalsOver 2.51.431.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+7.8%
GoalsOver 4.53.414.60 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+7.6%
GoalsOver 5.56.4210.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+5.6%
GoalsOver 1.51.141.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+4.1%
GoalsOver 6.513.6519.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+2.1%
GoalsOver 7.532.4841.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
+0.6%
GoalsOver 8.585.6881.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-0.1%
GoalsUnder 0.536.6020.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-2.3%
GoalsUnder 6.51.081.025 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-4.9%
GoalsUnder 1.57.965.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-6.5%
GoalsUnder 5.51.181.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-6.5%
GoalsUnder 4.51.421.2727 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-7.9%
GoalsUnder 2.53.302.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-11.4%
GoalsUnder 3.51.941.5833 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-11.6%
CornersUnder 6.5112.506.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-14.5%
CornersUnder 7.0112.505.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-17.3%
CornersUnder 7.528.124.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-18.7%
CornersUnder 8.028.123.60 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-24.2%
CornersUnder 8.514.063.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-26.2%
CornersUnder 9.56.622.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-30.3%
CornersUnder 9.014.062.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-32.9%
CornersUnder 10.54.331.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-34.8%
CornersUnder 12.52.371.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-35.6%
CornersUnder 11.53.121.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-37.2%
CornersUnder 10.06.621.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-37.3%
CornersUnder 11.04.331.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-42.1%
CornersUnder 12.03.121.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
-43.0%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (55)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Erling HaalandAnytime scorer2.25 Coral · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Alexander IsakAnytime scorer2.875 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Jayden DannsAnytime scorer3.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Floyd SambaAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Phil FodenAnytime scorer3.75 BetVictor · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Bradley BarcolaAnytime scorer4.14 Betfair · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Allan AndradeAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Cody GakpoAnytime scorer4.3333 Skybet · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Lewis KoumasAnytime scorer4.35 Unibet · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Antoine SemenyoAnytime scorer4.50 Coral · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Victor MunozAnytime scorer4.72 Betfair · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Rayan CherkiAnytime scorer4.92 Betfair · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Iliman-Cheikh NdiayeAnytime scorer5.00 Coral · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Rio NgumohaAnytime scorer5.25 Coral · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Jeremy DokuAnytime scorer5.70 Betfair · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Dominik SzoboszlaiAnytime scorer5.75 Coral · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Enzo FernandezAnytime scorer6.00 Coral · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Ryan McAidooAnytime scorer6.00 Skybet · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Florian WirtzAnytime scorer6.50 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Rayan Ait NouriAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Nico OReillyAnytime scorer8.50 Coral · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Alexis Mac AllisterAnytime scorer9.00 QuinnBet · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Trey NyoniAnytime scorer9.50 Coral · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Mateo KovacicAnytime scorer10.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Ayyoub BouaddiAnytime scorer12.00 Paddy Power · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Ryan GravenberchAnytime scorer12.80 Betfair · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Jeremie FrimpongAnytime scorer13.00 Coral · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Virgil van DijkAnytime scorer13.00 Coral · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Josko GvardiolAnytime scorer13.70 Betfair · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Rico LewisAnytime scorer15.00 QuinnBet · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Vitor ReisAnytime scorer15.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Marc GuehiAnytime scorer15.20 Betfair · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Elliot AndersonAnytime scorer16.20 Betfair · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Milos KerkezAnytime scorer17.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Ronald AraujoAnytime scorer17.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Konstantinos TsimikasAnytime scorer19.00 Skybet · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Wataru EndoAnytime scorer20.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Ruben DiasAnytime scorer22.00 Betfair · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Jeremy JacquetAnytime scorer23.00 Betfred · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Joe GomezAnytime scorer23.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Abduqodir KhusanovAnytime scorer26.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Matheus NunesAnytime scorer26.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Rayan CherkiAssistsover 0.53.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Jeremy DokuAssistsover 0.54.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Cody GakpoAssistsover 0.54.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Dominik SzoboszlaiAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Florian WirtzAssistsover 0.55.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Alexander IsakAssistsover 0.55.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Floyd SambaAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Lewis KoumasAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Rio NgumohaAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Ryan McAidooAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Antoine SemenyoAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 15:13 UTC
Bradley BarcolaAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC
Victor MunozAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-11 09:13 UTC