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Match board · Premier League · 2026-09-19

Tottenham v Aston Villa

Tottenham
33.4%
Draw
28.3%
Aston Villa
38.3%
Headline value
—
xG 1.1 – 1.2Tottenham form DDLLWAston Villa form LDLLW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

Tackles · 12 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Aaron Wan-Bissakaover 0.51.081.0909 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+0.8%
Rodrigo Bentancurover 0.51.091.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+0.6%
Joao Gomesover 0.51.011.01 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-0.4%
Mateus Fernandesover 0.51.051.04 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-0.8%
Matteo Ruggeriover 0.51.111.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-1.9%
Boubacar Kamaraover 0.51.091.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-2.1%
Lamare Bogardeover 0.51.111.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-3.0%
Conor Gallagherover 0.51.141.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-5.8%
Emiliano Buendiaover 0.51.161.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-6.0%
Marcos Senesiover 0.51.151.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-6.1%
George Hemmingsover 0.51.221.05 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-13.3%
Destiny Udogieover 0.51.291.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-16.4%
shots on target (SOT) · 10 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Nicolas Jacksonover 0.51.801.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-9.7%
Ross Barkleyover 0.52.862.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-10.5%
Dominic Solankeover 0.51.721.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-11.1%
Mohammed Kudusover 0.52.471.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-11.8%
Mathys Telover 0.52.501.80 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-15.6%
Emiliano Buendiaover 0.53.162.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-16.0%
Ibrahim Mbayeover 0.53.312.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-17.4%
Alejandro Garnachoover 0.52.761.85 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-17.8%
Omar Marmoushover 0.52.401.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-24.9%
Tammy Abrahamover 0.53.391.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-25.0%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultTottenham win3.002.06 Matchbook · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-15.2%
ResultDraw3.533.75 Betfred · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+1.7%
ResultAston Villa win2.613.84 Matchbook · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+12.3%
GoalsUnder 2.51.682.0149 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+10.0%
GoalsUnder 3.51.251.4167 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+9.3%
GoalsUnder 1.53.024.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+8.1%
GoalsUnder 4.51.091.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+5.9%
CornersUnder 7.53.984.75 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+4.1%
CornersOver 12.53.023.40 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+3.7%
GoalsUnder 5.51.031.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+2.9%
GoalsUnder 0.59.9713.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+2.3%
CornersUnder 8.53.013.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+2.0%
CornersOver 11.52.482.5455 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
+1.1%
CornersOver 10.52.052.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-1.2%
GoalsOver 7.5386.2767.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-1.2%
CornersUnder 9.52.392.30 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-1.6%
CornersOver 9.51.721.6471 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-2.6%
CornersUnder 6.57.226.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-2.8%
GoalsOver 6.5106.8226.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-2.9%
CornersUnder 10.51.951.80 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-4.4%
CornersOver 8.51.501.40 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-4.7%
CornersOver 6.51.161.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-4.8%
GoalsOver 5.533.3612.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-5.3%
CornersUnder 11.51.681.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-7.0%
GoalsOver 4.511.946.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-8.3%
CornersOver 7.51.341.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-8.5%
CornersUnder 12.51.501.30 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-10.1%
GoalsOver 1.51.491.2727 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-11.7%
GoalsOver 3.54.983.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-13.3%
GoalsOver 2.52.481.80 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
-15.2%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (55)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Dominic SolankeAnytime scorer2.70 QuinnBet · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Omar MarmoushAnytime scorer2.875 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Tammy AbrahamAnytime scorer3.50 Paddy Power · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Brian MadjoAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Nicolas JacksonAnytime scorer3.75 Skybet · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Luca Williams-BarnetAnytime scorer3.80 Unibet · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Mathys TelAnytime scorer3.80 Coral · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
James MaddisonAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Mohammed KudusAnytime scorer4.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Emiliano BuendiaAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
de Oliveira SavioAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Alejandro GarnachoAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Conor GallagherAnytime scorer5.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Ibrahim MbayeAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Johan ManzambiAnytime scorer5.75 Coral · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Alysson EdwardAnytime scorer6.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Mateus FernandesAnytime scorer6.00 Coral · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
John McGinnAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
George HemmingsAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Lucas BergvallAnytime scorer7.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Ross BarkleyAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Joao Victor SouzaAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Pedro PorroAnytime scorer8.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Sandro TonaliAnytime scorer8.00 Coral · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Rodrigo BentancurAnytime scorer8.50 Coral · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Jan Paul van HeckeAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Mickey van de VenAnytime scorer9.50 Coral · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Joao GomesAnytime scorer10.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Ian MaatsenAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Archie GrayAnytime scorer12.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Taylor Harwood-BellisAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Andrew RobertsonAnytime scorer13.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Ben DaviesAnytime scorer13.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Tosin AdarabioyoAnytime scorer13.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Boubacar KamaraAnytime scorer15.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Lamare BogardeAnytime scorer15.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Marcos SenesiAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Matty CashAnytime scorer15.00 Skybet · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Tyrone MingsAnytime scorer17.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Destiny UdogieAnytime scorer18.00 BetVictor · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Matteo RuggeriAnytime scorer18.00 BetVictor · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Pau TorresAnytime scorer18.00 BetVictor · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Aaron Wan-BissakaAnytime scorer19.00 bet365 · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Victor LindelofAnytime scorer22.00 BetVictor · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Mohammed KudusAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Conor GallagherAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Mateus FernandesAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Omar MarmoushAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Pedro PorroAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Mathys TelAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Alejandro GarnachoAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Dominic SolankeAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Emiliano BuendiaAssistsover 0.57.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Ian MaatsenAssistsover 0.57.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC
Destiny UdogieAssistsover 0.58.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-17 03:13 UTC