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Match board · Premier League · 2026-09-20

Manchester City v Sunderland

Manchester City
56%
Draw
22.3%
Sunderland
21.7%
Headline value
+14.6%
Malick Fofana · SOT
xG 1.9 – 1.1Manchester City form WWWWLSunderland form LDWLW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

VALUEMalick Fofanashots on target (SOT)2.50+14.6%

Player props

SOT · 13 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Malick Fofanaover 0.51.832.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+14.6%
Mateo Kovacicover 0.52.502.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-0.1%
Enzo Fernandezover 0.52.161.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-11.7%
Wilson Isidorover 0.52.471.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-14.0%
Brian Brobbeyover 0.52.471.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-14.0%
Juan Anguloover 0.53.232.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-16.7%
Josko Gvardiolover 0.54.692.625 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-16.8%
Rayan Cherkiover 0.52.071.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-16.9%
Jeremy Dokuover 0.52.431.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-20.8%
Ayyoub Bouaddiover 0.517.172.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-41.8%
Erling Haalandover 1.51.721.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-5.6%
Iliman-Cheikh Ndiayeover 1.57.042.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-25.8%
Antoine Semenyoover 1.56.422.375 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-26.5%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultManchester City win1.78—no price—
ResultDraw4.495.90 Matchbook · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+5.3%
ResultSunderland win4.6112.00 Betfred · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+13.4%
CornersUnder 12.51.351.45 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+5.3%
CornersUnder 9.52.502.80 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+4.3%
CornersUnder 11.51.621.70 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+2.9%
CornersUnder 8.53.774.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+1.5%
CornersUnder 10.52.052.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+1.1%
GoalsUnder 1.55.025.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+0.7%
GoalsUnder 2.52.362.40 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+0.7%
GoalsUnder 0.520.0921.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+0.2%
GoalsUnder 3.51.551.5455 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+0.0%
GoalsUnder 4.51.231.2222 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-0.3%
GoalsUnder 7.51.011.0067 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-0.5%
GoalsUnder 5.51.091.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-0.7%
GoalsUnder 6.51.031.025 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-0.9%
GoalsOver 8.5262.9567.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-1.1%
GoalsOver 7.584.0041.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-1.3%
GoalsOver 0.51.051.0303 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-2.0%
GoalsOver 6.529.8417.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-2.5%
GoalsOver 5.511.929.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-2.7%
GoalsOver 4.55.414.40 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-4.3%
GoalsOver 1.51.251.1818 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-4.5%
GoalsOver 3.52.832.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-4.7%
CornersOver 8.51.361.2727 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-5.1%
GoalsOver 2.51.731.5833 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-5.5%
CornersOver 10.51.951.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-6.6%
CornersOver 11.52.612.1538 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-8.2%
CornersOver 9.51.671.4545 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-8.7%
CornersOver 12.53.882.75 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-10.6%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (61)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Erling HaalandAnytime scorer1.571 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Antoine SemenyoAnytime scorer2.45 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Ryan McAidooAnytime scorer2.75 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Allan AndradeAnytime scorer3.10 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Iliman-Cheikh NdiayeAnytime scorer3.10 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Phil FodenAnytime scorer3.10 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Jeremy DokuAnytime scorer3.60 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Rayan CherkiAnytime scorer3.60 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Enzo FernandezAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Brian BrobbeyAnytime scorer4.60 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Wilson IsidorAnytime scorer4.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Juan AnguloAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Nico OReillyAnytime scorer5.25 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Malick FofanaAnytime scorer6.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Elliot AndersonAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Mateo KovacicAnytime scorer6.70 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Timur TutierovAnytime scorer6.70 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Ayyoub BouaddiAnytime scorer7.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Josko GvardiolAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Marc GuehiAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Nilson AnguloAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Chemsdine TalbiAnytime scorer7.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Rayan Ait NouriAnytime scorer7.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Vitor ReisAnytime scorer7.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Enzo Le FeeAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Kaden BraithwaiteAnytime scorer8.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Jocelin Ta BiAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Matheus NunesAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Chris RiggAnytime scorer10.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Abduqodir KhusanovAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Alan BrowneAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Daniel BallardAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Rico LewisAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Ruben DiasAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Granit XhakaAnytime scorer11.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Dayann MethalieAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Jules AhokaAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Thomas MeunierAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Trai HumeAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Jenson JonesAnytime scorer17.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Luke ONienAnytime scorer17.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Noah SadikiAnytime scorer17.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Nordi MukieleAnytime scorer17.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Omar AldereteAnytime scorer17.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Reinildo MandavaAnytime scorer19.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Kevin DansoAnytime scorer21.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Rayan CherkiAssistsover 0.52.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Jeremy DokuAssistsover 0.53.40 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Allan AndradeAssistsover 0.53.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Elliot AndersonAssistsover 0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Iliman-Cheikh NdiayeAssistsover 0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Enzo FernandezAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Antoine SemenyoAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Ayyoub BouaddiAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Erling HaalandAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Mateo KovacicAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Matheus NunesAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Rayan Ait NouriAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Rico LewisAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Nico OReillyAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Granit XhakaAssistsover 0.58.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC