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Match board · Premier League · 2026-09-20

Leeds v Crystal Palace

Leeds
32.9%
Draw
25.1%
Crystal Palace
42%
Headline value
+25.6%
Dario Osorio · SOT
xG 1.3 – 1.5Leeds form DDWLWCrystal Palace form LWLLW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

BESTDario Osorioshots on target (SOT)2.20+25.6%

Player props

SOT · 14 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Dario Osorioover 0.51.412.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+25.6%
Ismaila Sarrover 0.51.501.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+8.8%
Anton Stachover 0.52.272.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-1.4%
Evann Guessandover 0.51.911.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-2.3%
Eddie Nketiahover 0.51.711.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-3.4%
Dominic Calvert-Lewinover 0.51.481.30 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-9.6%
Jorgen Larsenover 0.52.191.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-19.6%
Harry Wilsonover 0.52.221.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-21.6%
Brenden Aaronsonover 0.52.711.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-25.0%
Yeremy Pinoover 0.54.522.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-25.5%
Lukas Nmechaover 0.52.091.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-30.0%
Noah Okaforover 0.52.671.40 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-33.9%
Daniel Jamesover 0.53.311.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-36.4%
Dominic Calvert-Lewinover 1.53.242.375 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-11.3%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultLeeds win3.041.95 Ladbrokes · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-18.4%
ResultDraw3.983.79 Matchbook · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-1.3%
ResultCrystal Palace win2.384.14 Matchbook · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+17.8%
GoalsOver 2.51.881.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+0.7%
GoalsOver 3.53.253.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
+0.0%
GoalsOver 4.56.566.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-0.1%
GoalsUnder 7.51.011.002 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-0.6%
GoalsOver 7.5122.9967.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-0.7%
GoalsOver 1.51.301.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-0.9%
GoalsOver 5.515.3613.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-1.2%
GoalsOver 0.51.061.05 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-1.3%
GoalsOver 6.540.9726.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-1.4%
GoalsUnder 6.51.031.01 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-1.5%
GoalsUnder 0.516.4412.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-2.3%
GoalsUnder 5.51.071.04 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-2.7%
GoalsUnder 4.51.181.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-2.7%
GoalsUnder 2.52.132.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-3.0%
GoalsUnder 1.54.333.8182 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-3.1%
GoalsUnder 3.51.451.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
-4.1%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (56)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Dominic Calvert-LewinAnytime scorer2.40 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Lukas NmechaAnytime scorer2.75 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Noah OkaforAnytime scorer2.75 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Harry WilsonAnytime scorer3.10 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Jorgen LarsenAnytime scorer3.25 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Brenden AaronsonAnytime scorer3.60 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Daniel JamesAnytime scorer3.60 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Eddie NketiahAnytime scorer3.60 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Ismaila SarrAnytime scorer4.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Evann GuessandAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Jean NegoceAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Anton StachAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Ao TanakaAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Dario OsorioAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Yeremy PinoAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Zavier GozoAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Sean LongstaffAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Daichi KamadaAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Dwight McNeilAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Jaka BijolAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Jayden BogleAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Quinten TimberAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Ben ChilwellAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Cheick DoucoureAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Gabriel GudmundssonAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Ilia GruevAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
James JustinAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Melvin BardAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Nico ElvediAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Tarik MuharemovicAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Adam WhartonAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Anan KhalailiAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Jefferson LermaAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Oscar MinguezaAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Takehiro TomiyasuAnytime scorer11.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Chris RichardsAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Ethan AmpaduAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Honest AhanorAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Jaydee CanvotAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Tyrick MitchellAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Will HughesAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Sean LongstaffAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Brenden AaronsonAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Harry WilsonAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Noah OkaforAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Anton StachAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Daniel JamesAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Ao TanakaAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Dwight McNeilAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Jean-Matteo BahoyaAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Yeremy PinoAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Quinten TimberAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Dario OsorioAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Evann GuessandAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Lukas NmechaAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC
Oscar MinguezaAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 12:43 UTC