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Match board · Premier League · 2026-09-19

Brighton v Arsenal

Brighton
44.4%
Draw
24.5%
Arsenal
31.1%
Headline value
—
xG 1.6 – 1.3Brighton form WDLWLArsenal form WWWWW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 12 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Bukayo Sakaover 0.51.351.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
+4.8%
Bruno Guimaraesover 0.52.092.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
+3.4%
Promise Davidover 0.51.821.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
+0.5%
Charalampos Kostoulasover 0.51.851.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-0.4%
Kai Havertzover 0.51.471.40 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-3.4%
Ibrahim Osmanover 0.52.472.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-9.4%
Martin Odegaardover 0.52.271.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-10.5%
Christos Tzolisover 0.51.931.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-14.9%
Eberechi Ezeover 0.52.811.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-18.9%
Viktor Gyokeresover 0.51.701.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-21.1%
Noni Maduekeover 0.52.671.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-22.5%
Mikel Merinoover 0.53.391.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-32.4%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultBrighton win2.255.12 Matchbook · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
+24.9%
ResultDraw4.094.04 Matchbook · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-0.3%
ResultArsenal win3.221.74 Matchbook · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-26.4%
GoalsOver 3.53.033.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-0.3%
GoalsOver 4.55.945.75 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-0.6%
GoalsOver 5.513.4812.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-0.9%
GoalsOver 6.534.8226.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-1.0%
GoalsOver 7.5101.1751.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-1.0%
GoalsOver 2.51.801.7692 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-1.1%
GoalsOver 8.5327.0367.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-1.2%
GoalsOver 1.51.271.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-1.5%
GoalsUnder 1.54.664.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-1.6%
GoalsUnder 0.518.1713.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-2.2%
GoalsUnder 3.51.491.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-2.3%
GoalsUnder 4.51.201.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-2.5%
GoalsUnder 5.51.081.05 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-2.7%
GoalsUnder 2.52.242.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
-3.0%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (60)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Viktor GyokeresAnytime scorer2.35 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Kai HavertzAnytime scorer2.625 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Bukayo SakaAnytime scorer3.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Christos TzolisAnytime scorer3.20 AK Bets · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Mikel MerinoAnytime scorer3.75 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Noni MaduekeAnytime scorer3.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Max DowmanAnytime scorer4.20 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Charalampos KostoulasAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Promise DavidAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Eberechi EzeAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Martin OdegaardAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Zadok YohannaAnytime scorer4.75 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Georginio RutterAnytime scorer4.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Diego GomezAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Nehemiah OriolaAnytime scorer5.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Shane NtiAnytime scorer5.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Declan RiceAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Ibrahim OsmanAnytime scorer6.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Moura Bruno GuimaraesAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Younes IbrahimAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Matt ORileyAnytime scorer6.50 AK Bets · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Maxim De CuyperAnytime scorer6.70 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Magalhaes GabrielAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Chema AndresAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Jurrien TimberAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Malick YalcouyeAnytime scorer7.50 AK Bets · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Martin ZubimendiAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Pascal GrossAnytime scorer8.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Yasin AyariAnytime scorer8.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Riccardo CalafioriAnytime scorer9.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Ben WhiteAnytime scorer9.50 AK Bets · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Marli SalmonAnytime scorer9.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Myles Lewis-SkellyAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Piero HincapieAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Cristhian MosqueraAnytime scorer12.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Ezri KonsaAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Ferdi KadiogluAnytime scorer12.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Luka VuskovicAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Jaouen HadjamAnytime scorer13.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Joao Pedro CostinhaAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Lewis DunkAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Michael SvobodaAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Pascal StruijkAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Olivier BoscagliAnytime scorer19.00 bet365 · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Bukayo SakaAssistsover 0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Christos TzolisAssistsover 0.54.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Eberechi EzeAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Martin OdegaardAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Mikel MerinoAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Noni MaduekeAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Declan RiceAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Max DowmanAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Kai HavertzAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Bruno GuimaraesAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Matt ORileyAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Maxim De CuyperAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Joao Pedro CostinhaAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 05:43 UTC
Georginio RutterAssistsover 0.57.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 05:43 UTC
Martin ZubimendiAssistsover 0.57.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Viktor GyokeresAssistsover 0.57.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-14 05:43 UTC