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Match board · Premier League · 2026-09-18

Brentford v Chelsea

Brentford
51.5%
Draw
21.7%
Chelsea
26.9%
Headline value
xG 21.4Brentford form DDDWDChelsea form DLWWL

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

Tackles · 10 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Valentin Barcoover 0.51.121.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 21:13 UTC
+6.3%
Mamadou Sangareover 0.51.031.05 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
+1.7%
Pep Chavarriaover 0.51.151.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
+1.3%
Mikkel Damsgaardover 0.51.111.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-2.5%
Marco Palestraover 0.51.241.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-2.5%
Jorrel Hatoover 0.51.191.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-3.5%
Malo Gustoover 0.51.181.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-7.4%
Romeo Laviaover 0.51.331.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-10.6%
Keane Lewis-Potterover 0.51.501.2222 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-15.1%
Michael Kayodeover 0.51.341.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-16.1%
shots on target (SOT) · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Kevin Schadeover 0.51.551.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
+2.8%
Danny Welbeckover 0.51.561.4545 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-4.8%
Cole Palmerover 0.51.531.40 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-6.1%
Morgan Rogersover 0.51.821.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-6.8%
Estevaoover 0.51.821.55 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-9.4%
Pedro Netoover 0.52.712.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-10.8%
Joao Pedroover 0.51.771.4545 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-12.4%
Igor Thiagoover 0.51.661.3684 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-12.9%
Keane Lewis-Potterover 0.53.232.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-13.5%
Jaidon Anthonyover 0.52.581.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-15.8%
Callum Wilsonover 0.52.011.40 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-21.6%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultBrentford win1.942.96 Matchbook · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
+17.7%
ResultDraw4.623.84 Matchbook · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-4.4%
ResultChelsea win3.722.35 Matchbook · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-15.7%
CornersUnder 7.53.114.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
+7.2%
CornersUnder 6.53.955.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
+7.1%
CornersUnder 8.52.472.80 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
+4.7%
CornersUnder 9.52.102.10 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
+0.1%
GoalsOver 5.57.727.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-0.4%
GoalsOver 1.51.171.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-0.4%
GoalsOver 2.51.511.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-0.6%
GoalsOver 8.5120.5967.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-0.7%
CornersUnder 10.51.691.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-0.7%
GoalsOver 4.53.913.80 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-0.7%
CornersUnder 11.51.431.4167 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-0.9%
GoalsUnder 0.529.9623.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-1.0%
CornersOver 12.54.214.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-1.2%
GoalsOver 3.52.262.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-1.3%
GoalsOver 7.543.3426.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-1.5%
GoalsUnder 5.51.151.125 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-1.8%
GoalsOver 6.517.2913.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-1.9%
GoalsUnder 6.51.061.04 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-1.9%
GoalsUnder 1.56.816.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-2.0%
GoalsUnder 3.51.791.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-2.1%
GoalsUnder 4.51.341.30 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-2.5%
GoalsUnder 2.52.942.70 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-3.1%
CornersUnder 12.51.311.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-3.8%
CornersOver 11.53.302.90 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-4.2%
CornersOver 10.52.462.20 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-4.7%
CornersOver 9.51.911.75 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-4.8%
CornersOver 8.51.681.4545 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-9.2%
CornersOver 7.51.471.2727 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-10.8%
CornersOver 6.51.341.1538 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
-12.0%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (54)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Igor ThiagoAnytime scorer2.20 Skybet · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Emanuel EmeghaAnytime scorer2.38 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
de Jesus Joao PedroAnytime scorer2.45 Coral · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Danny WelbeckAnytime scorer2.60 Coral · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Callum WilsonAnytime scorer2.75 bet365 · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Cole PalmerAnytime scorer3.00 Coral · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
EstevaoAnytime scorer3.40 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Morgan RogersAnytime scorer3.40 Coral · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Fabio CarvalhoAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Kevin SchadeAnytime scorer3.75 Coral · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Dango OuattaraAnytime scorer4.00 Coral · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Jaidon AnthonyAnytime scorer4.00 Coral · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Jamie Bynoe-GittensAnytime scorer4.333 10bet · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Geovany QuendaAnytime scorer4.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Gustavo Nunes GomesAnytime scorer5.00 bet365 · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Mikkel DamsgaardAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Pedro netoAnytime scorer5.50 Coral · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Mamadou SangareAnytime scorer7.50 Coral · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Keane Lewis-PotterAnytime scorer8.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Mathias JensenAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Reece JamesAnytime scorer8.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Valentin BarcoAnytime scorer8.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
El Hadji DioufAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Moises CaicedoAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Nathan CollinsAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Aaron AnselminoAnytime scorer9.50 Coral · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Yegor YarmolyukAnytime scorer9.50 Paddy Power · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Romeo LaviaAnytime scorer10.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Vitaly JaneltAnytime scorer10.00 Skybet · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Pep ChavarriaAnytime scorer11.00 Coral · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Jordan HendersonAnytime scorer12.00 Skybet · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Josh AcheampongAnytime scorer12.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Aaron HickeyAnytime scorer13.00 AK Bets · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Malo GustoAnytime scorer13.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Marco PalestraAnytime scorer13.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Maxence LacroixAnytime scorer13.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Michael KayodeAnytime scorer13.00 bet365 · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Kristoffer AjerAnytime scorer14.00 Paddy Power · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Jorrel HatoAnytime scorer15.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Levi ColwillAnytime scorer15.00 Betfred · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Rico HenryAnytime scorer15.00 Skybet · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Jannik SchusterAnytime scorer17.00 Skybet · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Wesley FofanaAnytime scorer17.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Geovany QuendaAssistsover 0.54.75 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
EstevaoAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Mikkel DamsgaardAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Cole PalmerAssistsover 0.55.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Morgan RogersAssistsover 0.55.25 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Pedro NetoAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Joao PedroAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Marco PalestraAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Valentin BarcoAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC
Keane Lewis-PotterAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-15 05:43 UTC
Reece JamesAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-09-16 03:13 UTC