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Match board · 2026-08-30

Chelsea v Brighton

Chelsea
31.1%
Draw
24.5%
Brighton
44.4%
Headline value
+20.7%
Over 12.5 · Corners
xG 1.3 – 1.6Chelsea form WWWDLBrighton form WLLWL

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

VALUEOver 12.5CornersLost4.50+20.7%
VALUEOver 12.0CornersLost4.50+20.5%
VALUEOver 9.5CornersWon1.8462+17.7%
VALUEOver 9.0CornersWon1.7857+16.2%
VALUEOver 8.5CornersWon1.5333+15.1%
VALUEOver 8.0CornersWon1.4762+12.8%
VALUEOver 7.5CornersWon1.3333+12.8%

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 12 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Jack Hinshelwoodover 0.51.631.875 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+8.0%
Geovany Quendaover 0.51.882.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+3.2%
Estevaoover 0.51.901.85 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-1.3%
Marc Guiuover 0.51.381.30 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-4.5%
Cole Palmerover 0.51.511.375 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-6.3%
Enzo Fernandezover 0.52.161.8462 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-8.0%
Charalampos Kostoulasover 0.52.141.80 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-8.8%
Danny Welbeckover 0.51.631.40 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-10.1%
Morgan Rogersover 0.52.011.65 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-10.8%
Nicolas Jacksonover 0.51.391.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-11.1%
Joao Pedroover 0.51.881.40 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-18.2%
Nicolas Jacksonover 1.52.732.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-13.4%
Tackles · 10 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Malick Yalcouyeover 0.51.041.125 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+6.9%
Diego Gomezover 0.51.041.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+4.9%
Romeo Laviaover 0.51.181.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-1.0%
Mats Wiefferover 0.51.061.04 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-1.5%
Jorrel Hatoover 0.51.161.125 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-2.6%
Dario Essugoover 0.51.141.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-5.6%
Olivier Boscagliover 0.51.251.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-7.5%
Malo Gustoover 0.51.211.0909 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-9.2%
Yasin Ayariover 0.51.261.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-10.8%
Jack Hinshelwoodover 0.51.451.1538 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-17.7%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultChelsea win3.221.86 Matchbook · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-22.7%
ResultDraw4.094.04 Matchbook · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-0.3%
ResultBrighton win2.254.23 Matchbook · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+20.8%
CornersOver 12.52.334.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+20.7%
CornersOver 12.02.344.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+20.5%
CornersOver 9.51.391.8462 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+17.7%
CornersOver 9.01.391.7857 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+16.2%
CornersOver 8.51.241.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+15.1%
CornersOver 8.01.241.4762 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+12.8%
CornersOver 7.51.141.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+12.8%
CornersOver 7.01.131.2632 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+9.0%
GoalsUnder 3.51.491.5833 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+3.8%
GoalsUnder 4.51.201.25 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+3.2%
GoalsUnder 2.52.242.40 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+2.9%
CornersOver 6.51.111.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+2.9%
GoalsUnder 5.51.081.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+1.7%
GoalsUnder 1.54.665.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+1.5%
GoalsUnder 0.518.1717.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-0.4%
GoalsUnder 6.51.031.025 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-0.4%
GoalsOver 8.5327.0381.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-0.9%
GoalsOver 7.5101.1741.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-1.5%
GoalsOver 6.534.8218.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-2.7%
GoalsOver 5.513.489.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-3.6%
GoalsOver 1.51.271.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-4.8%
GoalsOver 4.55.944.60 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-4.9%
GoalsOver 3.53.032.60 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-5.4%
GoalsOver 2.51.801.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-6.5%
CornersUnder 6.510.446.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-7.1%
CornersUnder 7.010.085.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-8.3%
CornersUnder 7.58.184.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-11.6%
CornersUnder 8.55.082.90 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-14.8%
CornersUnder 8.08.323.60 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-15.8%
CornersUnder 9.53.562.15 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-18.4%
CornersUnder 9.05.142.60 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-19.0%
CornersUnder 11.52.151.45 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-22.4%
CornersUnder 12.51.751.25 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-22.9%
CornersUnder 10.03.511.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-23.9%
CornersUnder 10.52.871.70 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-24.0%
CornersUnder 12.02.151.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-28.5%
CornersUnder 11.02.871.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-28.8%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (70)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Nicolas JacksonAnytime scorer2.25 Betway · 2026-08-30 03:13 UTC
de Jesus Joao PedroAnytime scorer2.41 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Marc GuiuAnytime scorer2.55 Unibet · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Cole PalmerAnytime scorer2.63 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Danny WelbeckAnytime scorer2.69 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Emanuel EmeghaAnytime scorer2.70 Coral · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Morgan RogersAnytime scorer3.69 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Promise DavidAnytime scorer3.74 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Charalampos KostoulasAnytime scorer4.14 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
EstevaoAnytime scorer4.33 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Jamie Bynoe-GittensAnytime scorer4.33 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Kaoru MitomaAnytime scorer4.50 Betway · 2026-08-30 03:13 UTC
Enzo FernandezAnytime scorer4.75 bet365 · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Georginio RutterAnytime scorer4.75 bet365 · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Josh RobertsonAnytime scorer4.75 bet365 · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Shane NtiAnytime scorer4.75 bet365 · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Jack HinshelwoodAnytime scorer5.02 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Geovany QuendaAnytime scorer5.41 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Matt ORileyAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Zadok YohannaAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Diego GomezAnytime scorer5.51 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Pedro netoAnytime scorer5.70 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Ibrahim OsmanAnytime scorer6.10 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Amario Cozier-DuberryAnytime scorer6.29 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Nehemiah OriolaAnytime scorer6.68 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Reggie WatsonAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Yasin AyariAnytime scorer7.86 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Malick YalcouyeAnytime scorer8.50 William Hill · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Maxim De CuyperAnytime scorer8.64 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Aaron AnselminoAnytime scorer9.00 bet365 · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Dario EssugoAnytime scorer9.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Valentin BarcoAnytime scorer9.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Reece JamesAnytime scorer10.30 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Romeo LaviaAnytime scorer10.30 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Pascal GrossAnytime scorer10.80 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Luka VuskovicAnytime scorer11.00 Coral · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Moises CaicedoAnytime scorer11.30 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Freddie SimmondsAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Malo GustoAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Maxence LacroixAnytime scorer12.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Tosin AdarabioyoAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Ferdi KadiogluAnytime scorer12.80 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Josh AcheampongAnytime scorer12.80 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Marco PalestraAnytime scorer13.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Mats WiefferAnytime scorer13.00 Virgin Bet · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Pep ChavarriaAnytime scorer13.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Jorrel HatoAnytime scorer14.00 BetVictor · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Pascal StruijkAnytime scorer14.00 QuinnBet · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Jordan HendersonAnytime scorer14.20 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Levi ColwillAnytime scorer16.70 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Eiran CashinAnytime scorer17.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Michael SvobodaAnytime scorer19.10 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Lewis DunkAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Wesley FofanaAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Joao Pedro CostinhaAnytime scorer20.00 Paddy Power · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Olivier BoscagliAnytime scorer21.00 BetVictor · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Cole PalmerAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Pedro NetoAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Morgan RogersAssistsover 0.54.60 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
EstevaoAssistsover 0.54.80 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Josh RobertsonAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Shane NtiAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Geovany QuendaAssistsover 0.55.25 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Nicolas JacksonAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 03:13 UTC
Joao PedroAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Enzo FernandezAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Marc GuiuAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Nehemiah OriolaAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Reece JamesAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC
Valentin BarcoAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-30 09:13 UTC