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Match board · 2026-08-31

Aston Villa v Arsenal

Aston Villa
44.4%
Draw
24.5%
Arsenal
31.1%
Headline value
+13.4%
Christos Tzolis · SOT
xG 1.6 – 1.3Aston Villa form LWWDLArsenal form WWWWW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

VALUEChristos Tzolisshots on target (SOT)1.6154+13.4%

Player props

SOT · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Christos Tzolisover 0.51.331.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+13.4%
Martin Odegaardover 0.52.032.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+3.9%
Kai Havertzover 0.51.601.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-1.2%
Bukayo Sakaover 0.51.511.4762 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-1.4%
Ollie Watkinsover 0.51.541.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-1.7%
Viktor Gyokeresover 0.51.661.40 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-11.3%
Emiliano Buendiaover 0.53.032.25 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-11.5%
Ethan Nwaneriover 0.52.431.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-13.4%
Eberechi Ezeover 0.52.501.75 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-17.2%
Noni Maduekeover 0.52.471.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-17.3%
Mikel Merinoover 0.53.311.85 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-23.8%
Tackles · 13 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Piero Hincapieover 0.51.071.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+10.4%
Boubacar Kamaraover 0.51.081.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+2.6%
Matty Cashover 0.51.151.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+1.1%
Matteo Ruggeriover 0.51.111.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+0.4%
Declan Riceover 0.51.161.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+0.2%
Emiliano Buendiaover 0.51.121.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-1.7%
Lamare Bogardeover 0.51.141.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-2.4%
Ian Maatsenover 0.51.141.0909 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-3.9%
Cristhian Mosqueraover 0.51.271.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 21:13 UTC
-4.3%
Mikel Merinoover 0.51.281.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-28 21:13 UTC
-5.0%
Riccardo Calafioriover 0.51.371.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-10.3%
Ben Whiteover 0.51.451.1333 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-19.3%
Myles Lewis-Skellyover 0.51.761.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-26.5%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultAston Villa win2.256.88 Matchbook · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+29.9%
ResultDraw4.094.33 Betway · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+1.4%
ResultArsenal win3.221.56 10bet · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-33.0%
CornersOver 6.51.071.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+10.3%
CornersOver 7.51.261.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+5.8%
CornersOver 8.51.541.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+4.8%
CornersOver 7.01.261.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+4.3%
CornersOver 12.04.515.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+4.0%
CornersOver 12.54.605.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+3.5%
CornersOver 8.01.531.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+3.5%
CornersOver 11.53.814.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+1.3%
CornersUnder 10.51.551.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+0.8%
GoalsOver 3.53.033.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+0.8%
CornersOver 9.52.092.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+0.3%
GoalsOver 4.55.946.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
+0.2%
GoalsOver 1.51.271.2727 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-0.0%
GoalsOver 2.51.801.80 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-0.1%
CornersOver 11.03.783.75 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-0.2%
CornersUnder 9.51.921.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-0.3%
GoalsOver 7.5101.1767.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-0.5%
CornersOver 10.52.812.75 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-0.8%
GoalsOver 5.513.4812.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-0.9%
GoalsOver 6.534.8226.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-1.0%
GoalsOver 8.5327.0367.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-1.2%
CornersUnder 11.51.361.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-1.3%
CornersOver 10.02.852.75 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-1.3%
CornersOver 9.02.082.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-2.0%
GoalsUnder 0.518.1713.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-2.2%
GoalsUnder 5.51.081.05 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-2.7%
GoalsUnder 4.51.201.1538 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-3.5%
GoalsUnder 1.54.664.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-3.5%
GoalsUnder 3.51.491.40 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-4.5%
CornersUnder 8.52.842.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-4.8%
CornersUnder 12.51.281.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-5.1%
GoalsUnder 2.52.242.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-5.4%
CornersUnder 11.01.541.40 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-6.3%
CornersUnder 7.54.793.60 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-6.9%
CornersUnder 10.01.901.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-7.5%
CornersUnder 12.01.371.2222 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-8.7%
CornersUnder 6.515.675.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-11.8%
CornersUnder 9.02.882.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-12.9%
CornersUnder 8.04.952.875 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-14.6%
CornersUnder 7.014.794.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-08-29 03:13 UTC
-16.3%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (62)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Viktor GyokeresAnytime scorer2.45 Virgin Bet · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Gabriel JesusAnytime scorer2.62 BetMGM UK · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Kai HavertzAnytime scorer2.80 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Ollie WatkinsAnytime scorer3.25 Betway · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Bukayo SakaAnytime scorer3.30 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Mikel MerinoAnytime scorer3.60 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Christos TzolisAnytime scorer3.74 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Max DowmanAnytime scorer3.74 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Eberechi EzeAnytime scorer3.94 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Ethan NwaneriAnytime scorer4.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Fabio VieiraAnytime scorer4.60 Coral · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Noni MaduekeAnytime scorer4.63 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Brian MadjoAnytime scorer4.72 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Nicolas JacksonAnytime scorer5.00 Skybet · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Tammy AbrahamAnytime scorer5.21 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Martin OdegaardAnytime scorer5.25 Coral · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Moura Bruno GuimaraesAnytime scorer5.61 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Emiliano BuendiaAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Declan RiceAnytime scorer7.27 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Bradley BurrowesAnytime scorer7.50 PricedUp · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Johan ManzambiAnytime scorer7.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Martin ZubimendiAnytime scorer8.00 bet365 · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Alejandro GarnachoAnytime scorer8.45 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Marli SalmonAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
John McGinnAnytime scorer9.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Alysson EdwardAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
George HemmingsAnytime scorer9.50 AK Bets · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Ross BarkleyAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Magalhaes GabrielAnytime scorer9.82 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Riccardo CalafioriAnytime scorer9.82 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Joao GomesAnytime scorer11.00 Unibet · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Luka LynchAnytime scorer11.30 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Ezri KonsaAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Leon GoretzkaAnytime scorer12.00 bet365 · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Piero HincapieAnytime scorer12.30 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Myles Lewis-SkellyAnytime scorer12.80 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Ben WhiteAnytime scorer13.70 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Ian MaatsenAnytime scorer15.20 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Matty CashAnytime scorer19.00 Paddy Power · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Cristhian MosqueraAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Modou CisseAnytime scorer21.00 Betfair · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Boubacar KamaraAnytime scorer23.00 Betfred · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Lamare BogardeAnytime scorer23.00 BetMGM UK · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Tyrone MingsAnytime scorer26.00 PricedUp · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Aaron Wan-BissakaAnytime scorer29.00 bet365 · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Matteo RuggeriAnytime scorer31.00 BetVictor · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Pau TorresAnytime scorer31.00 BetVictor · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Triston RoweAnytime scorer31.00 Paddy Power · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Victor LindelofAnytime scorer31.00 BetVictor · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Bukayo SakaAssistsover 0.53.80 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Christos TzolisAssistsover 0.53.90 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Max DowmanAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Martin OdegaardAssistsover 0.54.60 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Noni MaduekeAssistsover 0.54.75 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Mikel MerinoAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Eberechi EzeAssistsover 0.55.75 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Kai HavertzAssistsover 0.55.75 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Declan RiceAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Ethan NwaneriAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Bruno GuimaraesAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC
Luka LynchAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 03:13 UTC
Viktor GyokeresAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-31 09:13 UTC