xOdds
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Match board · 2026-08-23

Brighton v Aston Villa

Brighton
36.8%
Draw
26.4%
Aston Villa
36.8%
Headline value
—
xG 1.3 – 1.3Brighton form LLWLWAston Villa form WWDLL

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 7 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Jack Hinshelwoodover 0.51.631.80 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+5.8%
Ollie Watkinsover 0.51.501.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+1.5%
Emiliano Buendiaover 0.52.762.15 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-10.3%
Kaoru Mitomaover 0.52.501.80 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-15.6%
Diego Gomezover 0.52.541.80 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-16.2%
Charalampos Kostoulasover 0.52.161.5455 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-18.5%
Matt ORileyover 0.53.751.85 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-27.4%
Tackles · 8 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Diego Gomezover 0.51.041.05 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+1.1%
Mats Wiefferover 0.51.041.04 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-0.0%
Ian Maatsenover 0.51.131.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-2.3%
Boubacar Kamaraover 0.51.121.0909 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-2.4%
Emiliano Buendiaover 0.51.141.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-4.7%
Lamare Bogardeover 0.51.181.0833 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-7.4%
Yasin Ayariover 0.51.281.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-12.8%
Matt ORileyover 0.51.361.0714 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-19.8%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultBrighton win2.722.26 10bet · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-7.4%
ResultDraw3.793.60 BetVictor · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-1.4%
ResultAston Villa win2.723.40 PricedUp · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+7.4%
CornersUnder 9.51.962.15 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+4.5%
CornersUnder 10.51.601.70 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+3.6%
GoalsUnder 2.51.932.05 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+3.1%
GoalsUnder 3.51.361.4167 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+3.0%
GoalsUnder 1.53.744.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+2.9%
GoalsUnder 4.51.141.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+2.0%
CornersUnder 12.51.221.25 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+1.9%
CornersUnder 7.53.944.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+1.5%
CornersUnder 11.51.411.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+1.5%
GoalsUnder 5.51.051.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+1.0%
GoalsUnder 0.513.4615.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+0.8%
CornersUnder 8.52.842.90 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+0.8%
CornersUnder 6.56.456.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
+0.1%
CornersUnder 11.01.591.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-0.7%
GoalsOver 7.5187.4867.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-1.0%
CornersUnder 10.01.951.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-1.1%
GoalsOver 8.5672.5267.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-1.3%
CornersUnder 8.03.993.75 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-1.6%
CornersUnder 9.02.732.60 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-1.8%
CornersOver 8.51.541.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-1.9%
GoalsOver 6.558.2426.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-2.1%
CornersUnder 7.06.395.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-2.5%
CornersOver 6.51.181.1429 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-3.0%
GoalsOver 4.58.166.50 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-3.1%
CornersOver 7.51.341.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-3.1%
GoalsOver 5.520.3912.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-3.4%
CornersOver 11.53.423.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-4.1%
GoalsOver 1.51.361.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-4.5%
CornersOver 8.01.551.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-4.6%
CornersUnder 12.01.421.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-4.6%
CornersOver 12.05.174.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-5.7%
GoalsOver 3.53.793.10 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-5.9%
CornersOver 11.03.492.875 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-6.1%
CornersOver 9.52.041.80 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-6.6%
CornersOver 10.52.662.25 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-6.8%
CornersOver 12.55.534.00 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-6.9%
GoalsOver 2.52.081.8125 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-7.0%
CornersOver 7.01.351.2222 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-7.5%
CornersOver 10.02.682.20 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-8.1%
CornersOver 9.02.091.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-08-23 09:13 UTC
-10.1%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.