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Match board · Ligue 1 · 2026-10-16

Le Mans v Toulouse

Le Mans
29.6%
Draw
21%
Toulouse
49.4%
Headline value
—
xG 1.6 – 2.1Le Mans form LWDDLToulouse form DWDLD

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 8 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Louis Mafoutaover 0.51.221.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+10.7%
Casper Tengstedtover 0.51.351.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+2.6%
Jacen Russell-Roweover 0.51.611.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-4.6%
Santiago Hidalgoover 0.51.411.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-6.2%
Aron Donnumover 0.52.761.8696 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-17.3%
Dame Gueyeover 0.52.971.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-37.8%
Billal Brahimiover 0.57.651.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-41.5%
Abu Francisover 0.5100.501.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-56.9%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultLe Mans win3.383.11 Matchbook · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-2.6%
ResultDraw4.763.60 Betfred · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-6.8%
ResultToulouse win2.022.35 Unibet · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+6.9%
GoalsOver 3.51.983.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+17.3%
GoalsOver 2.51.401.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+14.3%
GoalsOver 4.53.205.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+13.9%
GoalsOver 5.55.8911.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+7.9%
GoalsOver 6.512.2226.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+4.3%
GoalsOver 7.528.3851.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+1.6%
GoalsOver 8.572.98101.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
+0.4%
GoalsUnder 0.540.4513.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-5.2%
GoalsUnder 5.51.201.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-11.1%
GoalsUnder 1.58.614.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-11.5%
GoalsUnder 4.51.461.1875 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-15.5%
GoalsUnder 2.53.502.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-19.1%
GoalsUnder 3.52.021.4545 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
-19.3%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (62)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Louis MafoutaAnytime scorer2.70 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Casper TengstedtAnytime scorer2.75 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Dame GueyeAnytime scorer2.90 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jacen Russell-RoweAnytime scorer3.10 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
William HarhouzAnytime scorer3.15 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Habib DialloAnytime scorer3.30 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Santiago HidalgoAnytime scorer3.40 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Antoine RabillardAnytime scorer3.80 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Erwan ColasAnytime scorer3.80 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Julien VignoloAnytime scorer3.90 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Sion OppongAnytime scorer4.40 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Aymen AmaaouchAnytime scorer4.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ilyas AziziAnytime scorer4.75 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Mathis SakaAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Thomas JorgensenAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Aron DonnumAnytime scorer6.50 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Abu FrancisAnytime scorer7.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Adil BourabaaAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jean VercruysseAnytime scorer7.50 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Martin RossignolAnytime scorer7.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Niklas SchmidtAnytime scorer7.50 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Billal BrahimiAnytime scorer8.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Alexis VossahAnytime scorer8.50 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Daouda TraoreAnytime scorer8.50 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Lucas BretelleAnytime scorer8.50 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Lucas BuadesAnytime scorer8.50 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Cristian Casseres JrAnytime scorer9.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Mathis AmougouAnytime scorer9.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Edwin QuarshieAnytime scorer9.50 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
David OdoguAnytime scorer10.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Christ TapeAnytime scorer11.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Lucas CalodatAnytime scorer11.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Niko SigurAnytime scorer11.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Rafik MessaliAnytime scorer11.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Samuel YohouAnytime scorer11.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Alexandre LaurayAnytime scorer11.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Djibril SidibeAnytime scorer12.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Yasser LarouciAnytime scorer12.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Harold VoyerAnytime scorer13.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ismail DialloAnytime scorer13.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Rasmus NicolaisenAnytime scorer13.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Rayan BambaAnytime scorer13.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Seny KoumbassaAnytime scorer13.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Mark McKenzieAnytime scorer15.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Noa BoisseAnytime scorer15.00 Coral · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Raul TorrenteAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Theo EyoumAnytime scorer15.00 BetVictor · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Aron DonnumAssistsover 0.55.25 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Cristian Casseres JrAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Ilyas AziziAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Julien VignoloAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Santiago HidalgoAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Thomas JorgensenAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Mathis SakaAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Sion OppongAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Antoine RabillardAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Billal BrahimiAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Jacen Russell-RoweAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Niklas SchmidtAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Rafik MessaliAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Abu FrancisAssistsover 0.57.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC
Erwan ColasAssistsover 0.57.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 05:43 UTC