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Match board · Serie A · 2026-10-18

AC Milan v Atalanta

AC Milan
56.4%
Draw
25%
Atalanta
18.7%
Headline value
—
xG 1.6 – 0.8AC Milan form DWDDWAtalanta form LLLWW

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

No standout edges on this fixture.

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 14 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Gianluca Scamaccaover 0.51.631.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-5.3%
Goncalo Ramosover 0.51.481.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-7.6%
Nikola Krstovicover 0.51.821.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-11.6%
Jonathan Roweover 0.52.121.6667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-12.7%
Diego Moreiraover 0.52.121.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-14.6%
Samuel Chukwuezeover 0.52.051.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-14.8%
Omari Giraud-Hutchinsonover 0.52.331.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-15.0%
Charles De Ketelaereover 0.52.861.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-19.6%
Alexis Saelemaekersover 0.54.231.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-30.9%
Eljif Elmasover 0.54.521.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-32.4%
Christian Pulisicover 0.52.401.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-33.3%
Adrien Rabiotover 0.53.311.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-35.0%
Ruben Loftus-Cheekover 0.57.181.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-55.3%
Francesco Camardaover 0.58.201.3636 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-61.1%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultAC Milan win1.771.87 10bet · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+2.9%
ResultDraw4.003.75 Betfred · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-1.7%
ResultAtalanta win5.364.20 Skybet · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-5.2%
GoalsUnder 2.51.762.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+9.3%
GoalsUnder 3.51.281.425 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+7.7%
GoalsUnder 1.53.244.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+6.5%
GoalsUnder 4.51.111.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+4.7%
GoalsUnder 0.511.0213.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+1.4%
GoalsUnder 5.51.041.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+1.2%
GoalsUnder 6.51.011.0152 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+0.3%
GoalsUnder 7.5—1.004 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
+0.1%
GoalsOver 7.5299.5351.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-1.6%
GoalsOver 6.586.2526.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-2.7%
GoalsOver 0.51.101.05 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-4.3%
GoalsOver 5.528.0312.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-4.8%
GoalsOver 4.510.436.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-7.1%
GoalsOver 1.51.451.2727 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-9.4%
GoalsOver 3.54.523.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-11.2%
GoalsOver 2.52.321.80 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
-12.5%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (59)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

Christian PulisicAnytime scorer2.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Matias Goncalo RamosAnytime scorer2.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Francesco CamardaAnytime scorer2.62 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Gianluca ScamaccaAnytime scorer3.20 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Nikola KrstovicAnytime scorer3.20 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Alphadjo CisseAnytime scorer3.25 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ruben Loftus-CheekAnytime scorer3.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Giacomo RaspadoriAnytime scorer3.80 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Alexis SaelemaekersAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Diego MoreiraAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Omari Giraud-HutchinsonAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Samuel ChukwuezeAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Adrien RabiotAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Charles De KetelaereAnytime scorer4.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jon RoweAnytime scorer5.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Eljif ElmasAnytime scorer5.50 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Kamaldeen SulemanaAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Luka ModricAnytime scorer5.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Nicola ZalewskiAnytime scorer6.25 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ardon JashariAnytime scorer6.50 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Christian ComottoAnytime scorer6.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Davide BartesaghiAnytime scorer6.50 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Lazar SamardzicAnytime scorer7.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Franck KessieAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Mario PasalicAnytime scorer7.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Yunus MusahAnytime scorer7.50 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Davide ZappacostaAnytime scorer8.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ederson SilvaAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Gianluca GaetanoAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Pervis EstupinanAnytime scorer8.50 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Strahinja PavlovicAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Koni de WinterAnytime scorer9.50 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Fikayo TomoriAnytime scorer10.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Filippo TerraccianoAnytime scorer10.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Matteo GabbiaAnytime scorer10.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Sankhoun DiawaraAnytime scorer10.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Raoul BellanovaAnytime scorer13.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Giorgio ScalviniAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Jacopo MirraAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Lorenzo BernasconiAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Mario GilaAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Thomas KristensenAnytime scorer15.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Relja ObricAnytime scorer19.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Sead KolasinacAnytime scorer19.00 bet365 · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Christian PulisicAssistsover 0.54.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Diego MoreiraAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Luka ModricAssistsover 0.54.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Adrien RabiotAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Alphadjo CisseAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Omari Giraud-HutchinsonAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Samuel ChukwuezeAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Alexis SaelemaekersAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Goncalo RamosAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Pervis EstupinanAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Charles De KetelaereAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Nicola ZalewskiAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Ruben Loftus-CheekAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Yunus MusahAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC
Davide BartesaghiAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-12 12:43 UTC