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Match board · Serie A · 2026-10-10

Genoa v Fiorentina

Genoa
19.8%
Draw
24%
Fiorentina
56.3%
Headline value
+20.9%
Under 7.5 · Corners
xG 0.9 – 1.7Genoa form LDLLLFiorentina form DWLLL

Model win probabilities from projected team xG (Poisson). Win-market prices are the best per-book captures, book named, latest snapshot — edge shown where a price exists.

Fractional is approximate; decimal is the price we published.Odds

Best picks · by edge · Best ≥25% / Value ≥12.5%

Edge is the model's probability minus the price's implied probability, in percentage points.

VALUEUnder 7.5Corners2.50now 2.875+20.9%
VALUEUnder 8.5Corners1.875now 2.10+17.8%
VALUEUnder 8.0CornersWon2.3077now 2.625+17.6%
VALUEUnder 6.5Corners3.60now 4.3333+17.1%
VALUEUnder 9.5Corners1.50now 1.6154+16.0%
VALUEUnder 10.5Corners1.30now 1.40+14.2%
VALUEUnder 9.0CornersWon1.75now 1.9091+14.0%
VALUEUnder 7.0CornersPush3.50now 3.75+16.3%
VALUEUnder 10.0CornersWon1.4444now 1.5333+13.4%
VALUEUnder 11.0CornersWon1.30+14.2%

Player props

shots on target (SOT) · 11 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Junior Messiasover 0.51.371.65 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+12.4%
Alieu Njieover 0.51.791.85 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+1.9%
Franco Mastantuonoover 0.51.441.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+0.3%
Arthur Attaover 0.52.242.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-5.4%
Betoover 0.51.651.4545 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-8.2%
Milutin Osmajicover 0.51.861.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-8.2%
Hamed Traoreover 0.52.541.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-13.0%
Lorenzo Colomboover 0.52.301.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-18.5%
Tommaso Baldanziover 0.54.091.95 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-26.9%
Mateo Pellegrinoover 0.53.031.4444 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-36.3%
Pedro Goncalvesover 0.513.011.5714 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-56.0%
Tackles · 7 lines
OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
Junior Messiasover 0.51.031.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+7.7%
Alejandro Jimenezover 0.51.141.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-1.3%
Morten Frendrupover 0.51.111.0625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-3.6%
Nicolo Fagioliover 0.51.211.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-8.1%
Cher Ndourover 0.51.261.1111 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-10.6%
Kingsley Ehizibueover 0.51.301.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-14.1%
Djibril Sowover 0.51.371.1333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 03:13 UTC
-15.2%

Markets

OutcomeFairBest← over · value →Edgeat latest price
ResultGenoa win5.053.50 Matchbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-8.8%
ResultDraw4.183.30 BetVictor · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-6.3%
ResultFiorentina win1.782.35 IvyBet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+13.7%
CornersUnder 7.51.642.875 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+26.1%
CornersUnder 8.51.412.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+23.5%
CornersUnder 8.01.642.625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+22.8%
CornersUnder 6.52.234.3333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+21.8%
CornersUnder 9.51.211.6154 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+20.8%
CornersUnder 10.51.101.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+19.7%
CornersUnder 9.01.411.9091 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+18.7%
CornersUnder 7.02.233.75 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+18.2%
CornersUnder 10.01.211.5333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+17.4%
CornersUnder 11.01.101.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+14.2%
CornersUnder 11.51.051.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+12.2%
CornersUnder 12.01.051.1667 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+9.8%
CornersUnder 12.51.021.125 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+9.3%
GoalsOver 4.58.169.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+1.1%
GoalsOver 2.52.082.10 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+0.5%
GoalsOver 3.53.793.8421 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
+0.4%
GoalsOver 7.5187.4881.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-0.7%
GoalsOver 8.5672.52101.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-0.8%
GoalsUnder 0.513.4612.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-0.9%
GoalsOver 6.558.2436.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-1.1%
GoalsUnder 4.51.141.1176 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-1.7%
GoalsOver 5.520.3915.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-1.8%
GoalsUnder 1.53.743.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-1.8%
GoalsUnder 2.51.931.8333 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-2.7%
GoalsUnder 3.51.361.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-3.3%
CornersOver 12.556.258.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-10.0%
CornersOver 12.056.256.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-13.6%
CornersOver 11.522.505.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-13.7%
CornersOver 11.022.504.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-17.8%
CornersOver 10.511.253.70 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-18.1%
CornersOver 9.55.772.625 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-20.8%
CornersOver 10.011.253.20 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-22.4%
CornersOver 8.53.461.95 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-22.4%
CornersOver 6.51.811.2857 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-22.7%
CornersOver 7.52.561.55 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-25.4%
CornersOver 9.05.772.30 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-26.1%
CornersOver 8.03.461.7273 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-29.0%
CornersOver 7.02.561.40 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
-32.3%
Cards — model coming. We don't show a fair number until the referee-adjusted model clears calibration.
Captured goalscorer & assist prices (62)

Not picks. These are prices we captured on the shelf, shown at the book and the moment we took them. We do not publish a model number for these markets, so nothing here is ranked, rated or recommended.

BetoAnytime scorer3.20 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Joi NurediniAnytime scorer3.20 Unibet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Mateo PellegrinoAnytime scorer3.25 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Sulayman JallowAnytime scorer3.70 Unibet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Lorenzo ColomboAnytime scorer3.75 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Elias HavelAnytime scorer3.79 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Pedro GoncalvesAnytime scorer3.80 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Milutin OsmajicAnytime scorer4.04 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Ferreira VitinhaAnytime scorer4.14 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Federico CrociAnytime scorer4.333 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Brando MazzeoAnytime scorer4.50 AK Bets · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Franco MastantuonoAnytime scorer4.50 BetMGM UK · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Arthur AttaAnytime scorer5.00 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Alieu NjieAnytime scorer5.41 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Junior MessiasAnytime scorer5.61 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Degnand GnontoAnytime scorer6.00 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Franz-Ethan MeichtryAnytime scorer6.00 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Stephan El ShaarawyAnytime scorer6.00 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Tommaso BaldanziAnytime scorer6.10 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Alexsandro AmorimAnytime scorer8.50 bet365 · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Samuel WiafeAnytime scorer8.50 QuinnBet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Cher NdourAnytime scorer8.84 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Djibril SowAnytime scorer9.00 Unibet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Nicolo FagioliAnytime scorer9.23 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Hamed TraoreAnytime scorer9.43 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Marco BrescianiniAnytime scorer9.82 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Alejandro JimenezAnytime scorer10.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
David PuczkaAnytime scorer11.00 Betfred · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Mikael Egill EllertssonAnytime scorer12.00 Coral · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Mamedi DoucoureAnytime scorer15.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Marcelo VazAnytime scorer15.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Neto Joao MarioAnytime scorer15.00 Betfred · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Morten FrendrupAnytime scorer16.20 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Mario MitajAnytime scorer17.00 AK Bets · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Christ OulaiAnytime scorer17.20 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Leo OstigardAnytime scorer17.20 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Luca RanieriAnytime scorer17.70 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Kingsley EhizibueAnytime scorer19.10 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Dodo dos SantosAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Stefano SabelliAnytime scorer19.60 Betfair · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Viery LopesAnytime scorer20.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Radu DragusinAnytime scorer21.00 Betfred · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Victor ValdepenasAnytime scorer23.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Alessandro MarcandalliAnytime scorer29.00 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Cody DramehAnytime scorer29.00 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Johan VasquezAnytime scorer29.00 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Sebastian OtoaAnytime scorer29.00 Skybet · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Marin PongracicAnytime scorer31.00 Betfair Sportsbook · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Federico CrociAssistsover 0.55.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Brando MazzeoAssistsover 0.55.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Pedro GoncalvesAssistsover 0.56.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Franco MastantuonoAssistsover 0.56.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Arthur AttaAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Sulayman JallowAssistsover 0.57.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Hamed TraoreAssistsover 0.57.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Nicolo FagioliAssistsover 0.57.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Stephan El ShaarawyAssistsover 0.57.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Franz-Ethan MeichtryAssistsover 0.58.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Lorenzo ColomboAssistsover 0.58.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-09 03:13 UTC
Mateo PellegrinoAssistsover 0.58.00 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC
Junior MessiasAssistsover 0.58.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 03:13 UTC
Tommaso BaldanziAssistsover 0.58.50 Oddschecker · 2026-10-10 09:13 UTC